Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Some strong winds (for the time of year) are forecast for Wednesday as low pressure moves across from the south west. This is a somewhat unusual direction and as always the strongest winds will be on the south and west sides of the low.

Nothing spectacular, but wise to be aware and make sure that anything that might blow about is secured.

[Penellype]

A warm and muggy couple of days, especially in the south, will make it feel like summer again. Do not be fooled. The warmth will disappear during the weekend to be followed by northerly winds resulting in a drop in temperature of 10 degrees or so. High pressure is then forecast to move into this cooler air, and this could result in widespread night frosts.

Time to get the fleece ready if you want to keep tender plants going for a bit longer.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen…much appreciated- will get the fleece out this weekend

[Containergardener]

I've.just checked our forecast and its.going down to about 3degrees, feels like zero by Monday morning. Its currently 16 outside at this early hour today

[Nicos]

We are still due 29C this afternoon…but forecast a low of 6C at night as from next week. What a contrast.

[Penellype]

Yes, its going to be a bit of a shock to the system I'm afraid.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen looking at our forecast we have night-time temps at 4c.

[Penellype]

Early warning to be prepared for a very windy weekend as the remains of Hurricane Humberto arrive. The exact track of the storm is not yet certain, but it looks likely that most places will have gusts upto 60 or 70mph at some point between Friday evening and Sunday. Higher gusts can be expected on the southern flank of the low, especially around coasts and hills.

Remember to make sure that things like bins, trampolines and garden furniture are secure, and shut greenhouse doors.

[Jay22]

Thanks Penellype, we are also under a yellow weather warning for rain from Wednesday until Friday so
it may be an interesting few days ahead!

[sandspider]

It has got cold! Icy wind.

[Nicos]

Penellype - do you have any updates in the weather forecast- either short term or long range please?
I miss your posts on here! A lot of them affect me too and you often seem way more accurate than the official forecasts!

[Penellype]

Penellype - do you have any updates in the weather forecast- either short term or long range please?
I miss your posts on here! A lot of them affect me too and you often seem way more accurate than the official forecasts!

Sorry, have been a bit busy recently and the cold sort of crept up on me. Thanks for the kind comments.

The current chilly weather has been caused by storm Benjamin moving away and pulling the wind round into the north. Storms usually track over or to the north of Scotland, but this one was further south and therefore the northerly wind behind it also extends further south. This should moderate a bit over the next couple of days as the wind backs westerly, although the source of the air is still from the north, so it will be chilly and probably showery for most of the week.

Beyond that there is considerable uncertainty. A deepening low looks likely to move north from around Biscay on Thursday or Friday and the models vary as to whether this crosses the UK bringing gales for the weekend and a potential named storm, or whether it tracks to the west with the strong winds mainly affecting Ireland. Wherever it goes the weather looks likely to turn milder but remain unsettled, wet and windy at times into next week.

The next thing to watch is the track of major hurricane Melissa, which is heading for a catastrophic direct hit on Jamaica and parts of Cuba this week. As hurricanes often do, this will head roughly in our direction and is likely to merge with other low pressure systems as it does so. Hurricanes always introduce uncertainties and this one is no exception, but current thinking is that it is likely to pull up warm south westerly winds during next week.

Looking further ahead is always guesswork, and (without becoming too political) all the forecasting has been made much more unreliable by a lack of data caused by a certain person across the pond cutting funding for science and in this context for weather data gathering. This, combined with unprecedented global temperatures, makes forecasting very hard as there is nothing comparable. If we were in the 80s I would be inclined to say that the current drivers and indicators are pointing towards a colder than average winter (especially weak La Nina combined with easterly QBO), but in modern conditions I am much less confident. We shall see.

I will try to keep this thread updated when there is something worth mentioning, as people seem to find it useful.

[Nicos]

Fantastic post Pen- beautifully explained- thank you x
Much appreciated as ever

[sandspider]

Thanks Pen - I do enjoy your insight and clear explanations.

[Penellype]

The current very mild spell is coming to an end and it will become much cooler from the north by the weekend. Currently warm air is being sucked up from the south by a low to the south west of Ireland, but high pressure is pushing north in the atlantic and this will topple towards us over the next few days, resulting in the winds turning into the north. As it does so there will be a battle between warm and cold air, resulting in periods of probably heavy rain in places, particularly the south, where the 2 air masses meet. Colder nights can be expected particularly in the north, and Scotland is likely to have nights below freezing.

There is some doubt about how long the colder weather will last although colder than average temperatures are likely for at least a week. There is the potential for some snow, particularly but not exclusively in the north. However, snow is notoriously hard to forecast more than a day or two ahead, so it is best to keep an eye on local forecasts as the cold spell progresses. As always the further ahead you go the less certainly there is, but the general consensus appears to be that any warm up may be short-lived as the models are tending to repeat the atlantic ridge pattern which leads to northerly winds.

This is not a big freeze - it is too early in the year, but if this pattern were to persist over winter that might be a different matter.