Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

^^^^ you did Pen…on the 28th!
( “ on or around the 7th”) …that was pretty close!
I have specifically been keeping my eye out for the last few days thanks to that x

Ah, I'd forgotten about that! May is a month that can swing dramatically from warm to cold or the other way. It is all to do with the position of high pressure, which was to our east, pulling up southerly winds, and has now drifted to our west, pulling down northerly winds. The current thinking is that the high will drift back over the top of the UK in the next few hours, which will cut off the northerly wind although it won't be a return to the warmth we had before. Under clear skies there is still the potential for chilly nights, although hopefully not as cold as last night.

[1Bee]

Thanks Penellype. :-)

Ah, more joys of the Cheato Benito.

[sandspider]

We've had a few short showers, but could do with a good soaking for my trees! Seems a shame to wish the sun away I know!
Looks like no rain now until around the bank holiday, when we're due to camp at a music festival!!

[Penellype]

First the good news - rain is on the way, although bank holiday Saturday would not be most people's choice of the best day for it!

Now the bad news. Thursday night is looking unseasonably cold. This is the GFS forecast for 6am on Friday:



Some of the models have it colder than that, particularly over Wales and parts of the west, where temperatures below freezing are possible. Be warned and be prepared to delay planting out or to cover vulnerable plants.

[Nicos]

Gosh…frost?…thanks for the heads up there Pen

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen I'll get the fleece ready.

[Andraste]

oh heck! thanks for the heads-up. x

[Penellype]

In the previous post I forgot that clicking on an image and pasting it results in the image changing with time, so the image above no longer shows the temperatures forecast for tonight. Sorry about that.

Here is the latest UK met office forecast for 4am tomorrow (a screenshot this time!)



These temperatures are cold enough for a ground frost in many places.

[Jungle Jane]

We had thunder & lightning at midnight last night & it poured with rain,it’s good as I hadn’t watered anything yesterday & it was 29 degrees here,I’d put a shade net up for the cucumbers but took it down today because it’s not as hot

[Penellype]

We had thunder & lightning at midnight last night & it poured with rain,it’s good as I hadn’t watered anything yesterday & it was 29 degrees here,I’d put a shade net up for the cucumbers but took it down today because it’s not as hot

Lots of thundery weather around last night, which managed to totally miss Yorkshire (which is officially in drought). There may be more showers/storms today, but after that it looks like warm, dry weather is returning with the potential (but no more at this stage) for some hot or even very hot (around 40C) temperatures towards the end of the month. It is too soon to say whether that will actually happen, but the models keep experimenting with it on the odd ensemble member (1 or 2 from 30 ensemble members on most but not all runs of the GFS for example).

[sandspider]

Well, looks like we're in for a hot spell again.

Any idea when we might next get rain, P?!

Thank you.

[Penellype]

Well, looks like we're in for a hot spell again.

Any idea when we might next get rain, P?!

Thank you.

There is the potential for some scattered light showers today, after that it looks dry until at least Sunday. The current models are showing a band of rain, which could be heavy and possibly thundery, moving in from the west on Monday night, fragmenting to the north so Scotland may not see much, and heavier in the west and central areas than in the east. This is some way off and things could easily change by then, but the pattern of hot, dry weather looks set until at least the weekend, with only the odd rogue light shower possible.

From next week there is a lot of uncertainty, but current model runs indicate a more unsettled period is possible. I hope they are right - we have a hosepipe ban here starting on Friday.

[Containergardener]

I don't need more rain, please send it where needs it

[Penellype]

I don't need more rain, please send it where needs it

I wish I could! We have had just 15mm rain here in Yorkshire since February, the driest spring on record, and reservoirs are running very low. We need weeks of steady rain to make up the deficit.

[Containergardener]

Talking to our neighbour with a gauge, we've been having an inch a day