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  • Penellype
    replied
    A few rather chilly nights coming up, with temperatures in low single figures for some. If you are in a frost prone area keep an eye on forecast temperatures and be prepared to close greenhouses and cover vulnerable plants.

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  • Snoop Puss
    replied
    We've decided that at the moment, weather forecasts looking ahead more than three days can't be relied on. We've had extreme weather recently and we're now swinging between extremely hot and quite cool weather for the time of year.

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  • quanglewangle
    replied
    We really noticed the fall off in airtraffic over us then the build up again. The is some sort of NAVAID up the road and we get transatlantic flights coasting in and out as well as transpolar flights from Pacific heading for continent.
    This morning about 07:30Z

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  • Plot70
    replied
    There are a couple of things that have been ignored in the official forecasting community.
    The most visible effect has been a lack of air craft trails over the past year or so. This causes the solar heat to bake the soil and dry leaf litter to a greater depth increasing the fire risk.
    We have seen overheated seedlings this year.
    Later in the season we get dirty rain from the forest fire smoke just when we want the sun to ripen our fruit.
    Freight aircraft do not leave con trails when they have long landing slots ahead of them. The operators save fuel by gliding them in from 1000 miles distant from there destinations with the engines at idle until they give them a little puff of reverse thrust on the runway to bring them to a halt.

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks for your explanation Pen, it must be getting difficult I've noticed weather site forecasts aren't as accurate as they used to be.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Thank you, I appreciate the thoughts. We'll find out, I suppose! I wouldn't worry too much, but I need to paint the house and would prefer dry weather!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    I haven't really had much chance to have a look at summer. My immediate thoughts are that the pattern of weather that we have been in for some time (warm and mostly dry) is changing and at least in the short term the high pressure seems to be drifting west and possibly north. This ties in with the summer weather I would expect from my limited knowledge of the effect of La Nina, which is still ongoing in the equatorial pacific. You would generally expect a cool and wet summer from this setup.

    The caveat, and it is a very big one, is that the climate is now changing so fast that past indicators may not mean anything at all. This was demonstrated well by last winter, which on all known past data "should" have been cold. It quite definitely wasn't. Weather models are struggling with predictions 10 days ahead - a couple of days ago bank holiday weekend looked like a heatwave, now it looks more likely to be cool and showery, although that may change again.

    If you forced me to predict, I would say that a cool summer is more likely than a hot one because of La Nina, but I wouldn't be in any way confident of a particularly wet one. The Azores high keeps sending ridges this way, and if it carries on doing that, cool and dry is a distinct possibility. The honest answer is I don't really know.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Hi Pen. Hope all is well! If you have a few minutes to give us your thoughts on likely weather for Summer, I'd be pleased to read them? I'd hazard a guess it will be warm in parts, but also possibly wet!

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen, it has made a change to have good weather over a Bank holiday.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Please be aware that after the summer-like temperatures we have enjoyed recently, things are going to get colder from the west tonight into tomorrow as a cold front brings a change of air mass and wind direction. The high pressure that has kept us warm and dry moves north, introducing cooler easterly winds. Night frosts are possible in places so be ready with the fleece if you have anything vulnerable outside. This looks likely to last for several days, with only a gradual warm-up, possibly followed by another colder spell if the high moves west towards Greenland as this would pull the wind round into the north, although that is too far away for any certainty.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Snow showers here yesterday and some quite heavy snow in Harrogate, although it melted in most places very quickly. Surprised to wake up to a blizzard here this morning as the showers were supposed to fade for today. I had to leg it to the allotment and shake the snow off the tunnel net before it damaged it. We then had a heavy hail shower and I had to do the same again.

    Things should warm up after the weekend, but the models are starting to firm up on another cold snap from Thursday, which could again involve snow possibly as far south as the midlands. Plenty of time for this to change though.

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  • Plot70
    replied
    We had snow showers and sunny intervals all day.
    Last edited by Plot70; 01-04-2022, 03:31 AM.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    You were spot on Pen…we had no snow this morning - just rain, but this afternoon was brill…loads of hailstones, strong winds, sleet, snow….only missing thunder and lightning!

    Deffo gone very cold.

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  • Jungle Jane
    replied
    We had snow when we were driving home from shopping today,very light for about two minutes,that’s enough for this year

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    We've got snow Pen luckily its not really settling more due later though.

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