Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Nicos]

Hopefully it won’t get as far south as me - I’m still enjoying my little vases of nasturtium flowers dotted around the house.
Thanks for the heads up Pen.

[Penellype]

The low pressure to our south west has been named storm Claudia by the Spanish met office, mainly due to high rainfall totals. These are associated with frontal systems between the two air masses and are coming our way. There are multiple UK Met Office warnings for rain and a couple of small yellow warning areas for wind, but the main area of concern is in an amber warning area across the midlands where a months worth of rain may fall during tomorrow and Saturday.

[Nicos]

Penellype - any indications about what might happen over the next few days / festive period please?

[Penellype]

Penellype - any indications about what might happen over the next few days / festive period please?

The current situation is that the Atlantic is very active, driven by a strong jet stream, the result of very cold temperatures over North America. The unsettled, often wet, sometimes windy, generally mild conditions look likely to continue for the rest of this week and into the weekend. There may be the odd chilly night as a low pressure moves away, giving a frost in places if skies clear. There are indications that the pattern may change next week, but the models are not agreeing on how this happens.

Scenario 1: High pressure starts to build in the Atlantic then topples over us before being flattened off by the Atlantic lows, resulting in a brief cooler and drier spell followed by a return to unsettled, mild weather by Christmas.

Scenario 2: High pressure builds in the Atlantic and over us, leading to drier cloudy weather with the potential for frost and fog.

Scenario 3: High pressure builds to the east, leading to drier, cloudy and mild weather.

Scenario 4: As 3, but the high then moves north, pulling the wind into the east and setting up a longer cold spell, which would be mainly dry except possibly in the south.

Other options are possible.

Basically the models haven't a clue, and neither have I, aside from the likely transition to somewhat drier weather after what could be a very wet week.

[Nicos]

Ok…good to be aware of those- thanks Pen. Always appreciated x

[Penellype]

So, it looks like scenario 4 is underway, with the high pressure pulling out to the west and allowing the wind to come round from the east and then the north in the new year. It could get very cold with an increasing risk of snow. There is uncertainty as to how long the cold spell lasts - at the moment the models are getting colder rather than milder, but things can change.

The message is, if you have weeding or work to do outside, it would be best to get it done before new year if possible!

[Nicos]

Thanks for the heads up Pen

[Penellype]

The current cold spell looks like coming to an end over the weekend as another low pressure pushes its way through on Sunday bringing a spell of wet and windy weather, which will probably start off as snow on high ground and in the north, hence the current warnings for snow and ice. This low will draw up warm air from the south and temperatures could reach double figures, particularly in the south for a couple of days before dropping back to single figures.

Initially the models were predicting that this situation (called warm air advection) would cause high pressure to build over Scandinavia, pulling the wind into a cold easterly and giving us another cold spell. This scenario appears to have been rejected in favour of a return to low pressure systems bringing milder air along with wind and rain from the west. There is now little sign of cold weather after this weekend for the next 3 weeks or so, although this could change. The main issue, particularly in areas that have had a lot of rain or snow from storm Goretti, is likely to be flooding as any snow will quickly melt as the warm air arrives.

[Containergardener]

Noticed we have heavy rain all day tomorrow starting tonight. But really need the thaw tbh.
Hopefully everyone's snow disappears before the rains.

[Penellype]

Noticed we have heavy rain all day tomorrow starting tonight. But really need the thaw tbh.
Hopefully everyone's snow disappears before the rains.

Unfortunately it is likely to rain or snow before it thaws, as the rain band marks the boundary between cold and milder weather.

[Penellype]

The models have again been playing with the idea of a Scandinavian high, with several runs earlier this week implying a lengthy and very cold spell of weather starting this weekend. The latest couple of runs have once again backed off this idea, so although it will get colder over the weekend, particularly in the north, it now seems more likely that the milder weather will win the battle. Things could still change though, but more rain (possibly snow in places at times) and some windy spells seem likely.

In the stratosphere there are signs of a potential sudden stratospheric warming. If this occurs as forecast it is possible that we could see a cold spell develop during February, although as usual nothing is certain.

[Andraste]

What with the crazy snow/sun cycle we've had today & intermittent raininess predicted by the met office this week, I'm wondering what the longer-term forecast is looking like. Any ideas Penellype ?

[Penellype]

What with the crazy snow/sun cycle we've had today & intermittent raininess predicted by the met office this week, I'm wondering what the longer-term forecast is looking like. Any ideas Penellype ?

Sorry I've not updated this thread recently - been up to my eyes in electricians doing a massive upgrade job, thankfully now finished.

The outlook is very uncertain at the moment. There was a sudden stratospheric warming a week or so (I think) ago which may or may not have implications for the weather in a couple of weeks time and the models are in complete turmoil. Basically, as usual, it all involves the precise position of high pressure, and there is massive disagreement between models and from run to run.

The next week or so looks mainly unsettled, with big swings in temperature and some wind and rain (more so in the north). After that there has been a signal for higher pressure to build over us, but this seems to be being eroded by lows on the latest runs. After the beginning of April some of the runs are going quite cold, with high pressure ridging towards Greenland bringing the wind in from the north, others are having none of that and are keeping the lows coming, this morning's GFS run has the high building to the east, which would become quite warm.

Basically beyond March nobody has a clue.

[Andraste]

Thanks Penellype

Knowing things are still a tad unpredictable is certainly a good thing as I'll be keeping that in mind when it comes to moving stuff to cooler conditions in the blow-away etc. I'll be hoping for the nice warmer weather but preparing for that not to happen.

If you have time, it would be awesome if you could update if the forecast firms up a bit. x

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen. Not looking good for making plans for Easter then.