Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Hope you don't mind me singing here, Penellype.

The rain in Spain falls more than in the UK...


https://www.linkedin.com/posts/guido...25117184-5cpb/

Yes, the low pressure has got stuck across Spain for the past couple of months, while the UK has had mainly higher pressure and much less rain. It should be somewhat drier in Spain for a while now as the low has moved towards Italy.

[Snoop Puss]

WOW Snoop that’s a heck of a lot of rain
We’re back to having frosts for the next few nights.

Yes. Some days quite heavy rain, other days not much at all, but enough to ensure that what had fallen previously sank in rather than drying off. It's been brilliant for the land.
We're back into frost territory for the next few nights till the drizzle starts up again.

[Andraste]

I'm sure I heard mention of a cold snap sneaking in next week - am I making that up Penellype? Any insight welcome as I fear I'll be lulled into complacency by the good weather here recently.

[Penellype]

I'm sure I heard mention of a cold snap sneaking in next week - am I making that up Penellype? Any insight welcome as I fear I'll be lulled into complacency by the good weather here recently.

At the moment we are under high pressure, which is why it is dry and warm during the day but chilly at night. This high is in the form of an "omega block", with low pressure systems to the south east and south west, and this is a pattern that is notoriously persistent. The high moves around slightly so if it drifts east it draws air up from the south, if it drifts west the air comes down from the north. The next couple of days look warm, but by the weekend it will become cooler as the high drifts west, before warming up again next week. While nights will be cold, it isn't going to be very cold, just about average for the time of year.

This pattern looks likely to continue until about 10th-12th April. After that there starts to be a lot of uncertainty. The possible scenarios are that the high persists roughly as it is now, low pressure moves in from the atlantic introducing more in the way of rain and milder nights, or the high moves west and north towards Greenland, which turns the wind into the north or north east. This is a cold scenario, which can bring snow and frost even in April. Currently it is a minority option, but it is there among the model runs - the 6am run of the GFS model was one that went for the colder option.

So, for the next 10 days or so you can expect dry weather with the possibility of some frosts at night, after that the possibility of a cold snap can't be ruled out. That's normal for April - in most parts of the UK the last frost date is in May.

[Mark Rand]

Please belay the hard frosts after my cherry tree has flowered. I'd like to get more than last year's harvest of one cherry!

[Penellype]

Please belay the hard frosts after my cherry tree has flowered. I'd like to get more than last year's harvest of one cherry!

Yours beat mine - I got none at all!

[Andraste]

Thanks Penellype. Although I don't recall it happening last year or in 2022 - we had snow here in March and April 2023 so it wouldn't be unusual for us.

I'll never forget that April 23 snow as it came in our second proper growing year on the plot. I spent hours creating an elaborate sowing/planting plan that went completely out of the window lol. We did learn a lot that year from the failures (more so than the successes) but I'd rather not repeat the lessons .

[Penellype]

Just a quick reminder, given the (possibly record for the time of year) warmth this week - it is still only April/beginning of May and the weather may well turn much colder after the weekend. It is not a certainty yet, but this morning's GFS run was forecasting frost and sleet or snow in places around 7th May. You have been warned!

[Andraste]

thanks Penellype

[Nicos]

Oh good grief Pen!

Thanks for the heads up on that- I had no idea.
I know we still have a potential for frosts for the next 5 weeks, but it’s so easy to be lured into a false feeling of security!

[1Bee]

Hi Penellype. :-)

Any sight of rain on the horizon? The beds which are usually too wet to dig until about now are starting to crack...

[Nicos]

Looks like we may have a frost tonight
What a change in the weather!

[Penellype]

Hi Penellype. :-)

Any sight of rain on the horizon? The beds which are usually too wet to dig until about now are starting to crack...

The short answer is not reliably, no. There is very little if any rain at all forecast for the next week or so, after that there is more uncertainty. The models tend to revert to the normal pattern , which is low to the north and high to the south, which tends to bring rain, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

In general, expect weather forecasts to get progressively worse as the consequences of Trump's purge of NOAA (the US weather forecasting department) continues. There are already serious shortages of meteorologists over there, and the models will be suffering from a shortage of data.

[Penellype]

Looks like we may have a frost tonight
What a change in the weather!

Yes, I really should have warned people about that - I was rather busy yesterday and forgot. Sorry.

[Nicos]

^^^^ you did Pen…on the 28th!
( “ on or around the 7th”) …that was pretty close!
I have specifically been keeping my eye out for the last few days thanks to that x