Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[sandspider]

Thanks for typing that out P, very informative

[Penellype]

It is too early to say whether this pattern will continue for the rest of summer, although it could do. There is very good agreement between all of the weather models that low pressure will dominate for at least the next 10 days, possibly much longer. This means that in general there will be showers or longer spells of rain with drier interludes, the wettest weather usually in the west but all areas unsettled. On average it will be cool for the time of year with alternating warmer and cooler periods as the lows pass through. Usually the warm areas are muggy and damp, with potential thunderstorms as the cooler air arrives, and these can dump a lot of rain in a very short time in localised areas. This pattern is likely to continue until something disrupts it, possibly an ex-hurricane, but there is no sign of this in most of the model output at present.

The wider situation includes building higher pressure over Greenland, which is never a good sign in the summer as it diverts low pressure south towards us. This is being fuelled by various factors which are tricky to understand, related to the MJO and the developing El Nino. In addition the Atlantic is in a record warm state which will fuel low pressure systems and very likely keep the pattern going, with copious amounts of rain possible as warmer seas mean more evaporation and therefore wetter air. This is only one of several record measurements at the moment (heatwaves, floods, global sea surface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice extent are some of them) and scientists are looking at various potential causes, but in general, with 4 days of maximum global temperature records broken last week, we are in uncharted territory. This is not a particular surprise, we were always going to see records falling like ninepins when we got an El Nino, but the speed at which it is happening is very alarming as the El Nino hasn't really got going yet.

[sandspider]

So, a fair bit of rain in the forecast. Might it dry up sometime, P? Have we had summer now? Thanks.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen, we are in a frost pocket so I’ve just had a look, and yes, it’s suggesting Thursday could be frosty here too.

[Plot70]

To me it looks like the 16th and 17th are the frost rick mornings.

[Penellype]

There is the potential for some chilly nights next week, although not all of the models agree. Currently the GFS model is showing 2 here on Thursday morning (4-6am) but that may not happen. It would be wise to keep an eye on local forecasts and be prepared to cover vulnerable plants if a ground frost looks possible. Different areas may be cold on different nights, depending on location and cloud cover.

[Penellype]

Well, things are warming up a bit I suppose. However, it's so wet it's hard to tell!

Yes, we seem to have got into a very wet pattern now. It may dry up a bit at the weekend, especially in the south, but it is unlikely to last long. It will probably get rather cooler too, but not cold enough for frost as far as I can tell.

[sandspider]

Well, things are warming up a bit I suppose. However, it's so wet it's hard to tell!

[sandspider]

Thanks P, appreciate the thoughts. I'm down fairly south, so fingers crossed...

[Penellype]

Darn it. When will it warm up?! My trees are planted out now, hopefully they're hardy enough by now...

Very hard to say when it will warm up. Currently the models are showing a return to something like average conditions around 28th April, but there is a large amount of scatter with some runs staying cold into May. In any case that is too far ahead to make any serious predictions. The chances of a cold spell are increasing by the day though, with only a handful of ensemble members disagreeing now. It looks likely to start getting colder around Monday, but that could change and will depend on where you are - the cold air will be arriving from the north.

[Penellype]

We are not out of the woods until mid May as far as frost goes.

Definitely - you can get through May without a frost, but you can't bank on it.

[sandspider]

WARNING - despite newspaper hype about a heatwave, there is a distinct trend towards a cold spell in the last week of April. It is too far off to be certain, and as always at this range the models show a lot of scatter, but the scenario that causes cold, which is high pressure moving towards Greenland resulting in a northerly wind, is one that has appeared repeatedly over the winter and is distinctly plausible.

Do not rule out the possibility of some sharp night frosts and it is possible that there may be some snow on high ground, and even a dusting to low levels if the colder scenarios verify. Don't put away the fleece just yet!

Darn it. When will it warm up?! My trees are planted out now, hopefully they're hardy enough by now...

[Nicos]

Our last frosts have been 7/9/10 ish June in the past..bad enough to turn all the spuds black!

The frost last night hit the strawberry flowers- I hadn’t noticed they were flowering - they’ve got black centres now. Oh well…as you say Pen - I best get the fleece out. I think we need a bit more this year tbh. Plenty of time though for more flowers….

[Bren In Pots]

We are not out of the woods until mid May as far as frost goes.

I agree with you there Plot, it’s just not worth the risk.

[Plot70]

We are not out of the woods until mid May as far as frost goes.