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  • Nicos
    replied
    Ha!…thanks for that Pen. Your time spent explaining is always appreciated x

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The current situation is that we have high pressure through the country with the wind coming from the west in the north and from the east in the south, producing the bizarre situation where Scotland has been rather a lot warmer than southern England. A cold front is currently moving south bringing with it patchy rain and milder temperatures for a while before clearer, colder air moves in behind it. This appears to be clearing southern Scotland at lunchtime today. The chilly air sticks around for the weekend as the high pressure continues to give mostly dry weather with light winds. There is the potential for frost, fog and cloud, although some places could see plenty of sunshine (I find the difference very hard to forecast). On Monday some colder air plunges down from the north, and some models have us included while others keep the cold to our east. Even if we do go cold, it doesn't look like it will last very long as the atlantic is becoming more active and looks very likely to start bringing in more changeable and at times wet and windy weather from the west. Depending on how far south the lows go this will either be typically mild, or possibly quite cold with some wintery potential. The models can't make up their minds.

    Further ahead is even more uncertain. At present there is an ongoing warming in the stratosphere over the arctic, but this is not a straightforward sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) as for some reason the cold polar vortex does not seem to be going to completely collapse. The affects of these things on the weather are extremely hard to predict at the best of times although an SSW can lead to cold weather a few weeks later (think of March 2013 or the 2018 beast from the east), but this does not always happen. I don't remember seeing anything quite like what is happening at the moment before so it isn't particularly surprising that the models are finding it hard to forecast. I'm going to file this in the "too difficult" tray for the moment!

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Hey Pen,..any updates? or is it just just more of in and out of cold snaps for now?

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Thanks for that Pen. I was planning to do my big food shop on Monday, so I’ll shift it to Friday.
    I’ll grab my chances now too for a bit more weeding before it’s ‘frost bite’ time again

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The models are now firming up on a 4-5 day cold snap starting on Sunday night, with the possibility of snow in places.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Thank you. Time to top up the heating oil, perhaps!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by sandspider View Post
    Endless rain here, but not too cold. Looks like the forecast remains changeable, but leaning towards mild for the time of year... Unless Penellype thinks differently!
    Mild for the moment but signs of a possible change next week to somewhat colder conditions, although not a "big freeze". I think it likely that we will see a continuation of the unsettled and rather wet pattern, with intermittent colder snaps as the jet stream moves a little further south and the wind turns into the north as lows move away to the east.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Endless rain here, but not too cold. Looks like the forecast remains changeable, but leaning towards mild for the time of year... Unless Penellype thinks differently!

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    We’ve got black ice here it’s not very good out on the roads so I’m happy to be home.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Spot on as usual Pen. We hit -11.7C last night and now we have fine drizzle.
    Everywhere has gone from crisp and white to green and crusty slush

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen, yesterday evening it rained so the last of our snow disappeared, this morning its very frosty and icy out.

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  • Plot70
    replied
    The ground began to thaw on the surface on my plot. It was very slippery to walk on.
    It has now dropped below freezing again. It may be a bit awkward for a few hours before turning fully to mud.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Thanks for that Pen - I imagine a lot of people will be out and about tomorrow….keep safe peeps!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The freezing weather is finally coming to an end during tomorrow, when a band of rain with possible snow to start with moves east across the country. The ground is frozen and extremely cold, and the rain is likely to freeze on impact. There are several Met Office warnings for snow, ice and freezing rain covering most of the country including an amber one for parts of the north. Please be careful if you are going out because surfaces that look wet may be a sheet of ice and impossible to stand up on. Similarly apparently wet roads may be lethal skating rinks.

    Warnings at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ce/uk-warnings

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks for your forecast Pen.

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