Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Penellype's Weather Channel 2

Collapse

This is a sticky topic.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • peanut
    replied
    There is a "natural" weather forecaster chap (think he might be based in Kent?) who appears on This Morning a few times a year to give his seasonal forecasts. When he did it for this Winter, all I can remember was him saying March will turn cold and there will be snow.
    Last edited by peanut; 20-02-2023, 01:49 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Plot70
    replied
    I have seen snow as late as April in Hampshire. It was in the late 1980s.

    Leave a comment:


  • Snoop Puss
    replied
    I've just read this and then looked ahead to our forecast for the end of the week. And yes, snow, heavy rain and very cold temperatures. And there as me doing exactly what you've just said, fooled into believing the worst of the winter was over. Thanks, Penellype. That's helped me make a few decisions.

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Please do not be fooled into thinking that winter is over because we have had a few milder days. Temperatures will return to nearer normal for the time of year in the middle of this week, and after that there is a lot of uncertainty. Most of the models are showing high pressure moving north to some degree, possibly as a response to the SSW mentioned above. This could, if it lands in the right place, lead to prolonged cold weather. It might not, but the possibility is there.

    You have been warned!

    Leave a comment:


  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen I was wondering why the apps I look at were reading differently.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nicos
    replied
    Interesting. Thanks for the update!

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    The weather apps are wildly inaccurate at the moment due to the difficulty of forecasting where the cloud will be. A good example is the 2 different models used on the Windfinder website. The GFS model which is used for the 10 day forecasts has been forecasting wall to wall sunshine for York yesterday and today with overnight temperatures dropping to around 2. The higher resolution "Superforecast", which does not tell you which model it uses, forecast sunshine yesterday, temperatures dropping to freezing last night and yesterday was forecasting today to be cloudy with a maximum temperature of 2. The reality is that yesterday was cloudy all day with temperatures around 7, and the minimum over night was around 5. Both models are predicting unbroken sunshine today, and it is still cloudy. The model that has performed best yesterday and today is the met office, which has useful forecasts of various factors such as temperature and cloud cover here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...emperature-map.

    In this situation it is best to ignore weather apps and use your eyes. If it is cloudy it is unlikely to get much warmer during the day or be very cold at night. If the sky is clear and there is little wind to stir up the air, frost and possibly fog are likely. The longer the sky is clear for the colder it will get.

    I hope this helps people who are wondering why the weather apps are so useless at present.

    Leave a comment:


  • sandspider
    replied
    Originally posted by Penellype View Post

    You should be fine pruning apple and pear trees, but don't prune any stone fruit such as cherries or plums until the sap starts to rise in late spring/early summer.

    The next few days are expected to be milder and dry although temperatures will depend on the amount of cloud, which can be very variable under high pressure. Towards the end of the week it is expected to cool down nearer to average and become a bit more changeable as lower pressure starts to move in from the west.
    Thanks P. It's mainly apples I need to prune, but I've read both not to prune them if there's any risk of frost for 5 - 10 days, and that it doesn't matter if there's frost immediately after pruning! It seems wise not to expose fresh cut wood to frosts, though.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen I like the sound of having a few dry days.

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by sandspider View Post
    Thank you, interesting and informative. I don't plan any planting out yet, but would like to prune my orchard...
    You should be fine pruning apple and pear trees, but don't prune any stone fruit such as cherries or plums until the sap starts to rise in late spring/early summer.

    The next few days are expected to be milder and dry although temperatures will depend on the amount of cloud, which can be very variable under high pressure. Towards the end of the week it is expected to cool down nearer to average and become a bit more changeable as lower pressure starts to move in from the west.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nicos
    replied
    Thanks Pen…much appreciated - sound advice as always.

    Leave a comment:


  • sandspider
    replied
    Thank you, interesting and informative. I don't plan any planting out yet, but would like to prune my orchard...

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by sandspider View Post
    Are you able to forecast / hazard an informed guess when things may warm up permanently, and the frosts go away, Pen?

    Thanks!
    Not really. It is still winter, and you need to remember that spring is much more likely to be cold and frosty than autumn. The current mid range forecasts (into early March) are very uncertain due to ongoing events in the stratosphere. At this time of year strong waves in the upper atmosphere can cause the temperature over the north pole to rise quickly, in what is known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This displaces the cold polar vortex, disrupting and reversing the normally westerly winds up there. Sometimes when this happens the disruption propagates down into the troposphere (where weather happens) and this can cause high pressure to develop or migrate towards the arctic. This can happen a few weeks after the SSW. Depending on the position of the high, if it does this, the result can sometimes be cold weather into spring. This is what happened in 2018 with the "beast from the east".

    It is important to notice the presence of the words sometimes, can, depending on and if in the above explanation of a SSW and its possible effects. It is often the case that a SSW does not result in cold weather here, but it does increase the chances of it happening.

    All current weather models are indicating that after a couple of "failed" attempts, there is going to be a SSW around 16th February. There is therefore a huge amount of uncertainty from around the beginning of March onwards, with some of the models apparently picking up on the SSW and showing high pressure migrating north. It is much too soon to tell what effect, if any, this will have on the weather here.

    In general, if you want to be safe and avoid frosts in the vast majority of years, unless you live on the coast or in a built up area (which is warmer) it is safest to leave planting out tender plants until May. That is far too far ahead for anything other than a guess from the position in mid February.

    Leave a comment:


  • sandspider
    replied
    Are you able to forecast / hazard an informed guess when things may warm up permanently, and the frosts go away, Pen?

    Thanks!

    Leave a comment:


  • Nicos
    replied
    Ha!…thanks for that Pen. Your time spent explaining is always appreciated x

    Leave a comment:

Latest Topics

Collapse

Recent Blog Posts

Collapse
Working...
X