Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Hi Penellype,

do the weather runes give you any idea as to what the autumn winter is likely to be like?

Long range predictions are always just a guess really. However there are some pointers to what might happen.

At present we have a very, very active hurricane season, with (as I write) 6 areas of interest on the hurricane map, one of them ex-hurricane Sally and another hurricane Teddy. Ex-hurricanes often change weather patterns here and while Sally is not forecast to come this way, Teddy might towards the middle of next week. My thoughts for the rest of September are therefore that the dry weather (but not as warm as it has been down south) continues for another few days before likely being replaced by cooler, wetter and more changeable weather which could become rather windy if Teddy heads over us. Whether this lasts through October is hugely dependent on what other ex-hurricanes do - there is almost certainly going to be more. My guess would be that October could be another month of swings between periods of low and high pressure with the resultant variation in weather and temperature. Autumn is always a tricky period to forecast. I haven't a clue about November.

For winter the signs are mostly pointing towards a colder rather than warmer winter. This may depend on how strong the current La Nina gets and how much influence it has over the north pacific. Recent mild winters have appeared to be linked partly to an area of warm water off the coast of Alaska, which has tended to send the jet stream on a north west to south east trajectory over America. this gives America a cold winter and powers up the jet stream across the atlantic, sending low pressure systems our way (mild, wet and windy). At the moment this area of water is still very warm, but in the last week or so there have been very slight indications of it cooling a little. This may or may not continue, if it does it increases the chance of a colder winter here. There are also slight signs of the new polar vortex (which starts to form at this time of year) being slightly weaker than usual, again a possible indicator of a colder winter. it is too early to say whether this will continue. The long range models are tending to show a cold winter, with particular emphasis on February, but their reliability at this range is highly doubtful.

So, autumn continuing to swing from one extreme to another and winter more likely to be colder rather than warmer is my best guess, but remember that a cold winter can have warmer periods (and vice versa). Be prepared though for the possibility of a cold February as this seems at the moment to be something of a consistent signal (even if it turns out to be consistently wrong!).

[1Bee]

I've taken down my tomatoes today, as we're properly into autumnal cool and damp conditions. We've had some warm days this week, but the mould was still setting in in the greenhouse.

[bikermike]

Hi Penellype,

do the weather runes give you any idea as to what the autumn winter is likely to be like?

[mothhawk]

This is not what is sometimes called an Indian Summer - that refers to warm and dry weather in October.

My grandfather always called a warm spell in September an Indian Summer, and a warm spell in October St. Luke's Little Summer.

I see the Met Office defines an Indian summer as 'a warm, calm spell of weather occurring in autumn, especially in October and November.' Since they now define autumn as commencing on 1st September, then any time from then on can be an Indian Summer I suppose.

[Penellype]

Could do with some warmth and sun after the drizzle and mizzle and rain. Need to get a few more things ripe.

Agreed - my outdoor tomatoes are really struggling to ripen - only the Sungold and the Shirley in the growhouse have produced ripe fruit so far.