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  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by sandspider View Post
    Having had a few days of minus temps, we've now got a lot of rain!
    Same here - the allotment has gone from being frozen solid to under water, and more forecast tonight and tomorrow. The back garden is a large puddle too.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Having had a few days of minus temps, we've now got a lot of rain!

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen.

    Edited to say, our local council are prepared, the gritters have just done our road.
    Last edited by Bren In Pots; 24-11-2023, 07:05 PM.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The cold air is now arriving and looks like hanging around for the next couple of weeks, with the odd milder day here and there (probably with rain). There may well be some snow, mostly on higher ground in the north, although the odd model run has more in the way of snow and the newspapers are (of course) latching onto this and forecasting armageddon. It is more likely to be frosty and chilly, but more precipitation spikes are appearing later on and depending on precise conditions and timing some of this could fall as snow, or even as freezing rain. This is going to be very much a case of keeping an eye on forecasts and being prepared for possibly quite big changes even at fairly short notice, as snow is just about the hardest weather type to forecast accurately.

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen, both Met office and BBC give me lows of 0 to1c for the weekend.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Just checked my location and we are in for 1C night temperatures then too….thanks for the heads up on that!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Models are now firming up on colder weather arriving at the weekend as the wind turns into the north. The Met Office shows a cold night on Friday with temperatures widely around or below freezing. There is considerable disagreement still on how long this lasts, with some models bringing in milder air after only a day or so while others keep it cold for several days. Any snow is likely to be confined to showers and high ground or along coasts in the north, although sleet or transient snow can't be ruled out if showers become heavy (seems unlikely).

    It is worth keeping an eye on forecast temperatures for your area and also on the forecasts regarding snow, as it is very hard to forecast snow accurately more than 1-2 days in advance.

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen, you make more sense than the headlines.

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  • Plot70
    replied
    Newspaper weather forecasts have a one phrase.
    Damp squib.
    There is nothing else that can be said.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    I Always appreciate your weather forecasts Pen- you always seem to come up as more accurate than the official ones!
    Thank you x

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Agree with you there about the sensationalism Pen.
    So long as everyone is prepared for a bad spell - be it wind, snow, rain, potential flooding- even heatwaves, then that’s the important thing.
    With Climate Change we all need to be a bit more aware of coping with more unusual/ atypical weathers.Especially as gardeners!

    When we first came out here to rural France from an English suburb, I’d never even considered in winter leaving a blanket and boots with sturdy treads in the boot of the car ‘just in case’ and a tow rope to help pull neighbours or friends - or us!- out of snowdrifts/ ditches.
    If I’d lived in rural England then I might have been more aware.
    Different weather expectations in different areas was the norm, but more extreme weather at home is going to take some getting used to!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Some ridiculous headlines are appearing in the usual newspapers concerning a "600 mile wide wall of snow". These headlines get further from reality each year.

    The weather models are showing a change to drier weather next week as high pressure builds from the south west. Some model runs have the high drifting west later in the week, which is too far ahead for accurate forecasting and not all model runs agree. If the high moves west this allows colder air to move in on northerly winds. However, this is not a done deal, and as this scenario leaves us with relatively high pressure, any precipitation will probably be in the form of showers and is likely to be confined mainly to coasts and hills. There may be snow mixed in, particularly in the north, although the number of runs showing this are a minority at the moment.

    What the newspapers will not tell you is that there are an approximately equal number of runs (both in the minority) showing quite mild weather as there are showing some snow. The majority option (but by no means certain) is cool and mostly dry, probably with frost and fog, but that does not make sensationalist headlines.

    The really awful thing about this sort of newspaper sensationalism is that people believe it, and then when it doesn't happen they blame the weather forecasters, who have said nothing of the sort. Then when there is a real risk of severe weather people are less likely to take it seriously.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Nights are forecast to get colder towards the end of the week and weekend, with frost possible even quite far south.

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen I've just checked a couple of weather site and we're down to overnight lows of 3c in the next few days..

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The summer-like conditions that many of us have had recently are about to come to an abrupt end tomorrow night. It could be cold enough for a ground frost in places, which will be a massive shock to the system. Check local forecasts and cover up anything fragile that you want to keep.

    Leave a comment:

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