Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

It looks like my fare skinned other half is going to end up all pink and crabby over the weekend.

I know the feeling - this sort of weather seriously limits the amount of time I can spend gardening unless I can find some shade. It takes me about 10 minutes to burn, and about the same to start feeling sick and dizzy if I don't wear a hat.

[Plot70]

It looks like my fare skinned other half is going to end up all pink and crabby over the weekend.

[Ms-T]

Thanks Pen. ..will get the watering can out ...

[Penellype]

The longer range models are backing off a long dry spell, with a much more normal thundery breakdown likely at the end of next week. It now looks more likely that we will have a typical cooler and changeable August as low pressure moves in, but as this is still long range the forecast will probably change again. What is certain is that the next couple of days are going to be hot and dry with temperatures around 30 degrees in many places.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen - always useful to know.

[Plot70]

Good for ripening winter squashes but only three stand pipes for 90 plots.

[Penellype]

Tomorrow sees the start of what could be a lengthy dry and increasingly warm/hot spell. Some (but not all) of the models see a possible breakdown in the middle of next week, but the longer range models seem to want to keep the high pressure going in some form right through to the middle of August. These are of course unreliable, but the signal is there for drier than average conditions even if the heat does not last that long.

While nothing like the heat and drought in Western America, if the longer range models are correct it could be a good idea to plan for dry weather by mulching if possible while the soil is still damp.

I am aware that those who live in some parts of London may currently be under water. Such flash flooding is very localised, with huge variations in rainfall amounts within a short distance. My sympathies are with those affected - the drier weather should at least provide some relief.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks for the heads up Pen

[Penellype]

Quick heads up for a couple of potentially quite cold nights tonight and tomorrow night, especially in the north. You may like to shut your greenhouse, if you have one!

[Penellype]

Very warm and sunny weekend coming up - make the most of it as a gradual deterioration is very likely next week. This looks like the start of a pattern change to cooler and more unsettled weather, so whether we are having summer now, or this will be just a brief interlude remains to be seen.

To be honest we need some rain here, having completely missed the showers (although not the thunder) at the weekend.

[Penellype]

Things are looking more promising for a warm and mainly dry first half to June, although there is a thundery low moving up the western side of the UK tomorrow bringing a risk of storms particularly to the south west - there is a yellow warning of thunderstorms tomorrow here. After that we find ourselves in a "col" which means that there is high pressure (in this case) to the north east and south west and lower pressure to the north west and south east. The general emphasis is on higher than average pressure and the position of the highs and lows mean that it will be warm rather than cool.

While a lot of dry weather looks likely, showers can't be ruled out in this situation. Some of the model runs are showing the arrival of lower pressure to the north around the middle of next week which may bring rain particularly to the northern half of the UK, and in this situation there is always the possibility of thunderstorms moving up from the south at times.

[Containergardener]

Thanks Pen

[Penellype]

Today's GFS run is more positive about the high pressure sticking around and moving to the east, which would be warmer. Other models retain the idea of a breakdown to lower pressure during next week, so still a huge amount of uncertainty.

As many weather apps are based on the GFS, it may appear that warm and settled weather is going to stay with us. It might, but be warned that the GFS does not (yet) have support for this scenario.

[Nicos]

Oh great...
As you say though....May hay.... we just have to stay flexible as poss I suppose!

Thanks for the update Pen.

[Penellype]

Finally looks like we're in for some drier and sunnier weather. Unless Pen knows different?!

Its not quite a "done deal" yet, although models are slowly converging on the idea of higher pressure over the bank holiday weekend. Temperatures are likely to climb to somewhere around average for the time of year (low 20s possibly) by the end of the week, which should hopefully remove the risk of ground frost at night. The high pressure is complicated by a weak upper trough which is likely to produce troublesome cloud and possibly some rain in places at the weekend although details are subject to change.

Into June there is a lot of scatter, but the general consensus is that any high pressure will not last long before lows start to move in again - the classic 3 fine days and a thunderstorm scenario. Some of the runs have us back to square one, with cool and showery conditions as early as next Tuesday. Others keep the high pressure influence for a little longer, but I don't think we can expect any prolonged dry and warm weather in the first week or so of June. Things can always change, but I think this summer could be a case of make hay while the sun shines, as it may not last for long.

I could easily be wrong.