Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Containergardener]

We often get frost the end of May here so I know its early days yet.
Await the heatwave posts Pen

[sandspider]

Snow this morning. And now endless rain continues. Think I'll build an ark!

[sandspider]

Got colder again too after a brief warm spell to tempt the daffs to open.

[nick the grief]

Got colder again too after a brief warm spell to tempt the daffs to open.

I've had to put my shirt and trouser back on ...

Went really dark earlier but then it brightened up but at least its not ... you know the R word ... yet

[Penellype]

We have just had the warmest February on record since 1779 (and failed to equal that long standing record by just 0.1 degree). The weather is currently undergoing a pattern change, with high pressure migrating north. This will probably result in easterly winds, which is a chilly direction in March. The temperature will depend critically on the source of the air - if it is from the south east it will be mild, if it is from the north east it will be cold. The models are currently split about 50:50 between the 2 options.

Unfortunately, although there should be a bit less rain than recently over the next week or so, the general pattern is still an unsettled one and the deluge could return at any point.

I just want some sunshine - we have had hardly any here in York so far this year.

[sandspider]

Finally a bit of sun yesterday that was actually warm! Shed loads of rain before it, of course. And drizzle again today. Ho hum, spring must be coming eventually. Ground is sodden.

[sandspider]

It is warming up a bit though

[Penellype]

It is warming up a bit though

Yes it is warmer at the moment, but expect a cool down next week. There is still plenty of time for frost, and remember that snow is more likely at Easter than at Christmas, so don't be fooled into thinking that the current warm spell is permanent!

Sun is out today, and Saturday was nice here. It makes so much difference when you are not trying to avoid getting wet all the time.

[Nicos]

In France there are official ‘frost days’ .
Bit bizarre I know - especially with Climate change, but historically they are supposed to be the last days of frost. They are in May.
Our latest recorded frost here Whats been the end of the first week of June!
I still can’t get over that- it’s happened 3 times in the last 16 Springs. Enough to turn potato haulms to black mush!
It does very much complicate matters so we have plenty of fleece to hand and are always vigilant at checking forecasts.
As sandpiper says though, it is warming during the day. This week , when( if) the sun comes out fully at midday we’re forecast UV 4 - which means time to slap on the suncream/ cover up. Seems odd when there is a heck of a windchill.

[Penellype]

It is the equinox this weekend, after which the days become longer than the nights. The sun is as strong as it will be in mid September. It is still colder because unlike in September, the land and air in the northern hemisphere have not had time to warm up yet. At this time of year winds that come from the continent are particularly cold because the land is cold, winds that come from over the sea are warmer. In summer the reverse is true because the land heats up faster than the sea.

[Nicos]

Oh gosh - yes Pen!….I’ve just realised that it’s less than 2 weeks before the clocks will be going forward an hour!
Yippee - very much looking forward to the lighter evenings!

[sandspider]

Looks like we're in for more rain, for as long as my long range forecasts can go, pretty much!

[Penellype]

Looks like we're in for more rain, for as long as my long range forecasts can go, pretty much!

Yes, unfortunately it looks that way. We need something to get rid of this entrenched pattern of low pressure sitting over the top of the UK, but I think if anything it will get worse before it gets better. There are no clear signs of high pressure as far as the models go, which currently is 13th April.

Sorry.

[Nicos]

Yikes Pen….this rain is never ending is it?

Thanks for the update.

[Penellype]

Yikes Pen….this rain is never ending is it?

Thanks for the update.

I've just watched a video summarizing all of the current long range model forecasts for summer. Guess what...

Wetter than average.

At least they are forecasting it to be reasonably warm.

Remember though that long range forecasts are little better than guesswork.