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  • Thanks for the info Pen.

    Last winter we had some snow but nothing to stop traffic moving but it looks like this year might be different and much colder with it.
    Location....East Midlands.

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    • Thanks P, I appreciate the detailed write up. Better batten down the hatches, as usual!

      SS

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      • Thanks Pen…brilliantly explained as usual
        "Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple

        Location....Normandy France

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        • Wow, thanks Pen. What a fantastic and detailed post.
          Location ... Nottingham

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          • Originally posted by Mr Bones View Post
            Wow, thanks Pen. What a fantastic and detailed post.
            Please do remember that forecasting beyond 5 days is little better than guesswork and I could be completely wrong.
            A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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            • 28 / 29C forecast today! Rain tomorrow or Thursday, but still quite warm. Rather pleasant in fact, though still cool at night.

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              • Originally posted by sandspider View Post
                28 / 29C forecast today! Rain tomorrow or Thursday, but still quite warm. Rather pleasant in fact, though still cool at night.
                The high pressure has finally shifted a bit further south and east, which has turned the wind from east or north east to south or south east, which is a much warmer direction and involves a lot less cloud. The rain later in the week may be in the form of thunderstorms and things are likely to cool down by the weekend.
                Last edited by Penellype; 07-09-2021, 05:37 PM.
                A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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                • Any Autumn updates Pen?…this warm spell is sure to break soon?
                  "Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple

                  Location....Normandy France

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                  • Sorry, been really busy and struggling to keep everything up to date!

                    The current warm and humid weather is a result of ex-hurricane Sam, which is currently to our west, drawing up warm air from the Azores. This is causing high pressure to build to its east, over us. During the weekend the low that was Sam moves south, and an associated cold front which is dumping rain over Scotland at the moment, will weaken and move south east, introducing cooler and less humid air from the west. There will be cloud and possibly a little rain associated with the cold front as it does this, but the high pressure remains basically in control.

                    Over the next week the temperature will depend on the position of the high pressure and the amount of cloud, which is always tricky to forecast with high pressure. There will be a risk of fog in places but I don't think it is likely to be cold enough for frost except on high ground. The high pressure looks well and truly stuck for probably at least the next 10 days, with the remains of Sam blocked to our west.

                    In the longer term what will probably eventually happen is that another ex-hurricane or tropical storm will join forces with Sam and become strong enough to shift the high pressure either to the east or south. When this will happen is very uncertain as these things are highly unpredictable due to the small size of the storms relative to the resolution of the weather models. Currently the models are forecasting the possibility of more unsettled weather from around 10 days time (but this is highly unreliable), and there is the possibility of colder weather arriving as a result of this around the last week of October (huge uncertainties).

                    In my opinion the possibility of a cold November and December is still on the cards. Remember though, this is little better than a guess.

                    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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                    • Thanks Pen...much appreciated as I'm torn between gardening and indoor renovations at the moment, so high pressure for a bit longer is good news for me as it gives me more time!
                      "Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple

                      Location....Normandy France

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                      • Thanks Pen

                        I'm getting stuck in to my allotment from tomorrow morning with my new brush-cutter so hoping to get as much done as possible before winter's bad weather does arrive. After a few years of being in a mental fug it feels good to actually feel excited and have plans for Plot 34
                        If I'm not on the Grapevine I can usually be found here!....https://www.thecomfreypatch.co.uk/

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                        • Quite a chilly night coming up tonight before the weather starts to break over the weekend. Low pressure pushing in off the atlantic will turn things much more wet and windy, probably for the rest of October, although things could change if another hurricane appears (nothing happening in that department at the moment). Although it will be quite warm at first with the air coming up from the azores, there is the potential for some colder weather with northerly winds towards the end of next week. This can of course change, but the models are fairly consistent with this signal at the moment. Frosts could be possible even in the south if the currently forecast pattern arrives.
                          Last edited by Penellype; 15-10-2021, 06:10 AM.
                          A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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                          • I notice my weather forecasts ( northern Normandy so similar to southern England) say rain daily as from Tuesday…. Thanks for the heads up confirming it.
                            "Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple

                            Location....Normandy France

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