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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks for your explanation Pen, it must be getting difficult I've noticed weather site forecasts aren't as accurate as they used to be.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Thank you, I appreciate the thoughts. We'll find out, I suppose! I wouldn't worry too much, but I need to paint the house and would prefer dry weather!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    I haven't really had much chance to have a look at summer. My immediate thoughts are that the pattern of weather that we have been in for some time (warm and mostly dry) is changing and at least in the short term the high pressure seems to be drifting west and possibly north. This ties in with the summer weather I would expect from my limited knowledge of the effect of La Nina, which is still ongoing in the equatorial pacific. You would generally expect a cool and wet summer from this setup.

    The caveat, and it is a very big one, is that the climate is now changing so fast that past indicators may not mean anything at all. This was demonstrated well by last winter, which on all known past data "should" have been cold. It quite definitely wasn't. Weather models are struggling with predictions 10 days ahead - a couple of days ago bank holiday weekend looked like a heatwave, now it looks more likely to be cool and showery, although that may change again.

    If you forced me to predict, I would say that a cool summer is more likely than a hot one because of La Nina, but I wouldn't be in any way confident of a particularly wet one. The Azores high keeps sending ridges this way, and if it carries on doing that, cool and dry is a distinct possibility. The honest answer is I don't really know.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Hi Pen. Hope all is well! If you have a few minutes to give us your thoughts on likely weather for Summer, I'd be pleased to read them? I'd hazard a guess it will be warm in parts, but also possibly wet!

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen, it has made a change to have good weather over a Bank holiday.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Please be aware that after the summer-like temperatures we have enjoyed recently, things are going to get colder from the west tonight into tomorrow as a cold front brings a change of air mass and wind direction. The high pressure that has kept us warm and dry moves north, introducing cooler easterly winds. Night frosts are possible in places so be ready with the fleece if you have anything vulnerable outside. This looks likely to last for several days, with only a gradual warm-up, possibly followed by another colder spell if the high moves west towards Greenland as this would pull the wind round into the north, although that is too far away for any certainty.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Snow showers here yesterday and some quite heavy snow in Harrogate, although it melted in most places very quickly. Surprised to wake up to a blizzard here this morning as the showers were supposed to fade for today. I had to leg it to the allotment and shake the snow off the tunnel net before it damaged it. We then had a heavy hail shower and I had to do the same again.

    Things should warm up after the weekend, but the models are starting to firm up on another cold snap from Thursday, which could again involve snow possibly as far south as the midlands. Plenty of time for this to change though.

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  • Plot70
    replied
    We had snow showers and sunny intervals all day.
    Last edited by Plot70; 01-04-2022, 03:31 AM.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    You were spot on Pen…we had no snow this morning - just rain, but this afternoon was brill…loads of hailstones, strong winds, sleet, snow….only missing thunder and lightning!

    Deffo gone very cold.

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  • Jungle Jane
    replied
    We had snow when we were driving home from shopping today,very light for about two minutes,that’s enough for this year

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    We've got snow Pen luckily its not really settling more due later though.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Just long enough to zap the fruit blossoms again eh?

    Thanks for the heads up Pen. Much appreciated as always.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by Penellype View Post
    Some gorgeous spring weather coming up next week with temperatures in the high teens for many places. Please do not be fooled into thinking that the threat of cold weather has gone. The models are gradually firming up on the possibility of a cold snap around the end of the month, which would be quite enough to produce some damaging frosts and possibly a bit of snow. Very early days at the moment and everything could change, but the potential is there.
    The models had the general idea pretty much spot on at 10 days, which is impressive. The cold front is currently moving south, taking some sleet and snow with it, the snow risk mainly on higher ground. There is a yellow warning of ice in parts of the north east. Wintery showers are likely in the northern half of the country tomorrow with the possibility of more general rain turning to sleet or snow in places in the south east.

    The cold snap is likely to last over the weekend, but the snow risk diminishes after tomorrow as high pressure takes over from the west.

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  • Plot70
    replied
    There has not been much snow around here. Perhaps it is going to be a white Easter this year.

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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Yep -1 to -2 here tonight so I've only got lettuce, sweet peas and radishes in my GH everything else is on windowsills.

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