Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[peanut]

As Prince said "Sometimes It Snows In April"

[Penellype]

Fortunately the high pressure didn't drift west and the weather has been reasonably pleasant although some places have had a lot of cloud (always a hazard with high pressure, depending on wind direction). However, we may not be out of the woods yet.

More changeable, windy and cooler weather coming in from the west over the next couple of days, with a potentially quite cold night on Friday and day on Saturday before it gets milder again into Sunday. However, the models are increasingly agreeing that the high pressure may move west into the Atlantic and ridge towards Greenland, bringing in a cold northerly wind just in time for Easter. If the coldest runs are right this could produce frosty nights and some snow, although this would be likely to melt quite quickly except on higher ground. Unlike the cold snap on Saturday this could last a week or so. A cold spell is not yet a certainty, but is looking more likely with every model run at the moment.

It is still only March. Do not be fooled into planting out tender plants - snow at Easter is more common than snow at Christmas, and it could be cold enough to severely check plants even in a greenhouse.

[Penellype]

If it does snow in the third week I'll have THE most almighty tantrum!!! I have a week off starting Monday 22nd and hope to finish off any remaining digging & weeding that week Fingers crossed.

It all critically depends on the position of the high pressure. Current trends are to keep this slightly to our west, which draws in a chilly northwest flow around the top of the high. Some runs have the high drifting further north, which could start to pull the wind in from the east. In this situation the further south and east you are the more likely you are to get the coldest air and snow. There are plenty of runs that are much warmer at this point though - it is too far ahead for any certainty.

There is another option, that the high drifts further west towards Greenland. This could produce a cold northerly blast, but this at the moment seems to be a less likely scenario.

[Gillykat]

If it does snow in the third week I'll have THE most almighty tantrum!!! I have a week off starting Monday 22nd and hope to finish off any remaining digging & weeding that week Fingers crossed.

[Penellype]

Yellow wind warnings for much of the country over the next 48hrs as the jet stream pays us a visit. There will be a fair amount of rain too, and it will get briefly warmer as the warm sector of the low passes through. Colder again afterwards with wintery showers possible over northern hills.

After a couple of chilly nights over the weekend it looks likely to get milder and drier with high pressure returning, although the temperature will depend crucially on the position of the high. Some of the model runs are seeing a return of winter in the 3rd week of March with snow a possibility while others remain mild and spring-like. It is too early to be sure which will happen, but please be aware that it is still possible that winter may yet reappear.

[Penellype]

A couple of very cold nights coming up with a sharp frost likely. After that it should become somewhat less cold, with milder, wet and windy weather moving in from the west by mid week. After that things are much less certain, but the trend seems to be towards low pressure systems which may be far enough south at times to pull the wind in from the north as they move away. It is therefore not impossible that some places may see some sleet or snow briefly towards mid month, possibly even quite far south, but at present a return to very cold weather appears unlikely. Forecasts this far ahead can, of course, change.

[Plot70]

We are heading for the hail stone season.
It is normally when the daffodils are in flower. There is a lot in bud and a few open in my area.

[Penellype]

It is very easy to think that winter is over when the weather warms up at this time of year like it has at the moment. It is looking distinctly possible that by this time next week it could be cold again with quite severe night frosts and some wintery showers possible in the east. This is still a week away and therefore subject to change, but at the moment the high pressure looks like drifting north or north west, which would turn the wind into the east or north. There is unlikely to be a lot of snow as high pressure is likely to still be in control, but a distinct drop in temperature is probable.

You have been warned!

[Penellype]

Brill gardening weather then to look forward to!
Thanks Pen.

Yes, I am hoping it will dry up enough for me to finally plant my fruit bushes.

[Nicos]

Brill gardening weather then to look forward to!
Thanks Pen.

[Penellype]

A very windy afternoon and night coming up, especially in Scotland and the western half of the UK, where it will also be very wet. There are multiple yellow and amber warnings, the amber ones for rain and yellow for wind and rain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2021-02-23

After this storm (which I don't think has been named) there will be a change to higher pressure with much less wind and rain. Temperatures will be pleasant during the day especially in any sunshine, but nights will be colder with a risk of frost and possibly fog.

[Nicos]

Good to know Pen - thanks, much appreciated!

[Penellype]

Thanks for the vote of confidence! Remember, I am self-taught and have no meteorological training whatsoever. I can, therefore, misinterpret things or misunderstand what I am looking at.

I think it is fairly clear that the rest of February is likely to continue to be mild (sometimes very mild especially in the south) and often windy with bands of rain and showers crossing the country from the west. This is similar to a typical weather pattern of low pressures following the jet stream in a westerly flow and results in warm and muggy sectors (one coming up over the weekend) and cooler, often clearer and showery sectors following the rain as the low moves away (like yesterday). The wind is generally coming from the south west, with a long sea track, hence the air is generally mild and wet. I say it is "similar to" because the jet stream is behaving somewhat oddly at the moment, with very steep loops, which have resulted in the catastrophically cold conditions in the southern USA and snow in Saudi Arabia. There is high pressure to the south of us which will build to the east over the next few days, a process called warm air advection. The flow around this high will draw cold air into Eastern Europe down the eastern side of the high.

As always, forecasting further into the future becomes less reliable. As usual the weather will depend on where the high pressure goes. Warm air advection has a habit of swinging the wind round from the south to the south east and then to the east as it inflates the high further north. The further north the centre of the high goes the more likely we are to find ourselves in a cold easterly wind. The models are flipping between scenarios where the high remains over or to the south of us, drawing up mild air (although if the skies are clear under high pressure in February it will be cold enough for night frost) and the high moving to Scandinavia and turning the wind back into the east, with upper air temperatures plummeting to various degrees depending on how far north the centre of the high goes. Worst case scenario would be the high going far enough north for the easterlies to tap into the very cold air that has sunk into eastern Europe, which would give us another "beast from the east". Yesterday's midday run of the GFS model produced exactly this scenario at the end of the run (3 weeks away), whereas this morning's midnight run keeps us in a generally westerly flow, cooler than the current south westerlies, but with the very cold air well away to the east. Looking at the models is therefore not giving any sort of consistent guidance into March.

So, expect mild but often wet and windy weather for the rest of the month, wettest in the west, with some flooding likely, probably becoming drier especially in the south later in the month. After that, at present the possibility of another very cold (and possibly snowy) spell cannot be ruled out, although on balance staying milder looks slightly more likely.

[Nicos]

^^^ very true!!!

[sandspider]

Things seem to be warming up now, but getting wetter.

If you have time for a wee update that would be appreciated, Pen? Your efforts are more reliable than my various weather forecasts!