Game Show

[OllieMartin]

Oooh, just found this online:
DCity - The Three Doors
It's a java simulation of the game show.

I played 100 times always switching and got these results:
Games Played = 100
Games Won = 62
%Games Won = 62
Times you switched = 100
Times you stayed = 0

I then played 100 times always sticking and got these results:
Games Played = 100
Games Won = 33
%Games Won = 33
Times you switched = 0
Times you stayed = 100

I'd say that was 'fairly' conclusive.

[Caro]

Well, I was sticking to my position ...

Until Sheepish pointed out that the host knows which door is which and ONLY opens a door if you've picked a wrong door.

In that case it's fixed and I agree, you should change!

[HeyWayne]

yeah thanks for that! any guesses what I'm singing now?

Merry Christmas Everyone?

[OllieMartin]

Well, I was sticking to my position ...

Until Sheepish pointed out that the host knows which door is which and ONLY opens a door if you've picked a wrong door.

In that case it's fixed and I agree, you should change!

That's not right though. The host opens another door regardless. Otherwise you'd get it right 100% of the time.

[HeyWayne]

If however the host is Larry Grayson - the game's a waste of time anyways.

[HotStuff]

Whichever door you originally choose there will always be atleast one of the 2 doors remaining that has no prize behind it. It's not "fixed" but the host does know where the prize is and will always open one of the two remaining doors that has no prize behind it.

At the time you make your original choice there is a one third chance of the prize being behind any door. Therefore, it's a one third chance it's behind the door you chose and two thirds it's behind one of the other two. The fact that the host then opens one of the other two doors does not alter those odds, therefore if you change your mind to the other unopened door you will double your chances of winning

[Caro]

Oooh, just found this online:
DCity - The Three Doors
It's a java simulation of the game show.

I played 100 times always switching and got these results:
Games Played = 100
Games Won = 62
%Games Won = 62
Times you switched = 100
Times you stayed = 0

I then played 100 times always sticking and got these results:
Games Played = 100
Games Won = 33
%Games Won = 33
Times you switched = 0
Times you stayed = 100

I'd say that was 'fairly' conclusive.

Ollie. I disagree - only "unfairly" conclusive. I think the java game is flawed. I played it 60 times, and the trend was as you described, I won more by switching. BUT - not once did I manage to pick the right door first, which in an unbiased game should have happened approx 20 times. I'm going to hunt down the Stephen Fry thing as I agree, he is a god, but I suspect he was tongue in cheek about it.

Whichever way, no matter how hard I try, I couldn't have any faith in your Java game since I didn't pick the money door first time, not once!

[Pete C]

I once went to a dinner function, and on the press table was a commissioning exec from the Beeb. I pitched him my idea of a gameshow - That's My Slave - but he never got back to me. It was a lot more interesting than the fixed door game.

[HotStuff]

Ollie. I disagree - only "unfairly" conclusive. I think the java game is flawed. I played it 60 times, and the trend was as you described, I won more by switching. BUT - not once did I manage to pick the right door first, which in an unbiased game should have happened approx 20 times. I'm going to hunt down the Stephen Fry thing as I agree, he is a god, but I suspect he was tongue in cheek about it.

Whichever way, no matter how hard I try, I couldn't have any faith in your Java game since I didn't pick the money door first time, not once!

So are you saying EVERY time you switched you got it right and EVERY time you stuck with your original choice you got it wrong?

[Caro]

So are you saying EVERY time you switched you got it right and EVERY time you stuck with your original choice you got it wrong?

No, I'm saying that every time the prize-winning door was one of the two I hadn't picked. So, not once did I manage to pick the prize-winning door first. After I'd already got it "wrong", the money door was the other door about 2/3rds of the time.

Anyone following this? Anyone still care?

Personally, I'm more interested in knowing how Pete's "That's My Slave" would work

[HotStuff]

No, I'm saying that every time the prize-winning door was one of the two I hadn't picked. So, not once did I manage to pick the prize-winning door first. After I'd already got it "wrong", the money door was the other door about 2/3rds of the time.

So the other 1/3rd of the time it was ? It couldn't be the other one you hadn't picked, because that's the one the host has opened. Therrefore it must have been the one you originally chose.

[OllieMartin]

Ollie. I disagree - only "unfairly" conclusive. I think the java game is flawed. I played it 60 times, and the trend was as you described, I won more by switching. BUT - not once did I manage to pick the right door first, which in an unbiased game should have happened approx 20 times. I'm going to hunt down the Stephen Fry thing as I agree, he is a god, but I suspect he was tongue in cheek about it.

Whichever way, no matter how hard I try, I couldn't have any faith in your Java game since I didn't pick the money door first time, not once!

Then I suggest re-trying and just double click the same door each time for 100 times. That's exactly what I did and got exactly 33%.
Perhaps you didn't use a large enough base or just got unlucky.

[Caro]

Ollie,

I'm not normally an argumentative person (as those who followed my saga with my nasty neighbour may be able to attest as I let him off scot free). But for the premise that to change your original choice is the correct move to be proven, then that must mean that the host can change the validity of your original move by opening an additional wrong door.

I think the whole argument must be swayed by the fact that sometimes your original choice is correct and if you change, you're wrong.

When it comes down to a random choice of two, the odds are 50:50. Nothing else. Just a choice of two, odds being 50:50.

Now, what was the slave game, seriously?

[Pete C]

THAT'S MY SLAVE

Basic Premise: Contestants have to 'find' their slave from a line up. Three rounds are held at the initial stage. The first two rounds are random,whereby the contestant is blindfolded, and the slaves (the real one and the nine impostors) perform a task (chosen at random from the bath of tasks by a bungee-jumping midget). This is followed by the taste test, where slaves insert a body part into a box containing the contestant. Theyhave to taste this, then identify their slave from the imposters.

I was explaining how the final would involve a nun's motorcycle display team when he walked away.

[zazen999]

On the first go; you have a 1 in 3 chance; which stays at 1 in 3 unless you change; whereupon it changes to 1 in 2 when you flip.