Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

Well, the current setup of southerly jet stream and low pressure parked over the top of us, which is bringing the cold and wet weather is forecast to move away briefly (for a few days) around the May day bank holiday. Higher pressure may ridge in from the azores, and the models currently have it building over Scandinavia. The overall pattern is very similar to the beast from the east that we had earlier in the year, but within a warmer air mass. This is this morning's chart for Sat 5 May:



Follow the isobars back and they originate from northern Russia. However crucially the air mass is very different as the upper air temperatures show:



Instead of the blue colours that we had for the beast from the east, we have oranges and yellows, with the blue areas well to the east.

IF this happens we could see temperatures in the high teens to low 20s. This is very pleasant, especially as it would be mainly dry. However, it is hardly a heatwave.

The charts change significantly with each run at this range and this is no certainty. It also isn't forecast to last very long, with a gradual deterioration through the week after the bank holiday, so that by Friday we are back to square 1:



All of this is outside the reliable timeframe, and none of it may happen. However there has been consistency within the models for a change to higher pressure by the bank holiday, so hopefully that bit will come off. We can only wait until nearer the time - my experience of these warmer spells that are forecast some days ahead is that they tend to get shorter as they approach, and sometimes all but disappear altogether. We will see.

[Penellype]

I should perhaps also add that there is still a lot of variation in the models regarding the extent of Monday's rain and possible snow risk. Some of the models now have the rain further east so that it mainly affects the south east, east midlands and east anglia. There is currently a yellow warning of rain for this area from Sunday evening until the end of Monday https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings. Other models still have it affecting more of the country, so its another of those "keep an eye on the forecasts" situations, I'm afraid.

[Nicos]

Sner????...in May??? cor blimey!

[Penellype]

Famously on 2nd June 1975, snow stopped play in a cricket match in Buxton. 1975 went on to be a decent hot summer after that slight blip. Rewind to 1975: Snow stopped play | Cricket | ESPNcricinfo

So yes, it can still snow in May, but its rare. Monday is still April though - just.

[Penellype]

Tomorrow night looks like providing a real headache for gardeners, especially for eastern areas. A rapidly deepening area of low pressure is forecast to bring heavy rain and strong northerly winds which will moderate only slowly. As the low clears away it will leave clear skies and rapidly falling temperatures, resulting in a likely ground frost. Western areas will be less windy but probably colder, with temperatures probably dipping below freezing in much of Scotland and most places in the rest of the UK between 0 and 5. The east will have significant windchill to add to that.

The problem is how to protect vulnerable foliage and fruit blossom. Wet fleece will stick to leaves and the movement caused by the wind may damage them or knock off flower buds. Plastic sheeting will flap about and probably cause damage, and both could well blow away. The timing for York shows a chilly and increasingly windy night tonight with strong to gale force gusts starting around 9am and increasing steadily until mid afternoon, falling slowly to just windy by 9pm. Rain is forecast all afternoon, and the temperature then drops to 1 (windchill to -3) between 1 and 6am Tuesday.

I can't see how I can protect my apple tree, which has blossom just starting to open. Every inch of space in my growhouse, tunnel and cloches is occupied by as many strawberries etc as possible. All my potatoes are under cloches. Anything else I can move will be going in the garage this evening and staying there until Tuesday morning. I will try to protect the strawberries in the hozelock planter with fleece tomorrow night after the rain stops, but it may not be possible in the wind.

Check the forecast for your area and plan what you are going to do (if anything) - plants will survive a day of very low light in a garage or shed, but they might not survive being wet and freezing in a gale.

[Nicos]

Yikes Pen!
Ta for the heads up.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Pen I well remember that Monday I was there to start with but we soon went home.

I am not much of a cricket fan but one of my BiLs had tickets purely I think because Dickie Bird was one of the umpires and he invited me to go with him.

I stayed at my in laws in Buxton that weekend and it was shirt sleeve weather until the Monday morning then up to 6" of snow fell.

Tuesday bright sunshine but back to Nottingham and work....

[Penellype]

The models have shifted the low pressure to the east a bit this evening, so that the main areas at risk from wind and rain are the south east and East Anglia. As there is less risk of rain further north, this reduces the likelihood of snow somewhat, but I wouldn't rule out some wet snow in amongst the rain for some places.

Places like York, which are on the edge of the predicted rain, may or may not get wet, but because skies are likely to clear faster, these areas will be colder than they would be if they remained cloudy for longer.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Speaking to one off the BiL's this evening it has not got above 5'C in Buxton today which is blooming cold for late April, it's only a month till my son goes on his jollies in Devon

[Penellype]

Yes, near record cold for the end of April in places at the moment. It will get better soon, in the east we just need to get through tomorrow, whereas after a cold start it won't be too bad a day in the west.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

42mph winds expected over night. I’m half expecting to wake up and find most of our taller tulips gone. Hopefully the broad beans will be ok, they aren’t too tall.

I’m wondering with the amount of rain due over the next 24 hours if I should have covered the raised beds. Carrots and I think parsnip seeds just starting to pop through so hopefully they will be alright.

On the plus side I hope the nematodes I applied on Friday are well washed in now!

[Selymbria]

It is extremely windy and rainy in mid-Kent since 9pm yesterday with highs of 4degrees.

[ESBkevin]

Here in 'sunny Suffolk' they closed the Orwell bridge overnight due to high winds and it's been unseasonably cool for a couple of days now. Central heating back on yesterday! I guess it's our turn, we typically miss the foul weather everyone else gets. Looking to warm as the week progresses but a complete change from last week for sure.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

Tulips seem to have survived the night! Rocked a little bit at soil level and flopped over as a result but that’s better than snapping. I can bed them back in once the weather improves. Rain doesn’t seem to have been too awful here - it’s wet but no flooding. Cold though!

[Penellype]

No rain here, but windy and unpleasantly cold. As it is the end of the month and I don't fancy freezing at the allotment, just for interest I thought I'd have a look at David King's April forecast again and see how it did http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....April_2018.pdf.

The statistics will tell you that April has been warm, but that's a long way from the whole story as it started off cold and wet, was suddenly warm/hot for a week from 16th, and has gone unusually cold again now. Looking at the 4 moon quarters and their forecasts, the 8th (last quarter) was cold rain - a fair description. New moon on 16th was for snowy and stormy, and this coincided with the hot spell, so that is completely wrong. 1st quarter on 22nd was for fair and frosty - while it wasn't exactly frosty it was much cooler and with some pleasant sunny days in between the wet ones. It may have been drier in the south east, and we have to remember that the south east is where these forecasts were primarily for. That's important for the next bit....

Full moon, 30th April - cold and rain showers. Mmm, its certainly cold and wet in the south east today!

As I have said before, although you can't rely on this to be accurate, and sometimes it turns out to be completely wrong, more often than by random chance it seems to nail a particular weather feature to the day. That's quite a feat for something that can be used to make a forecast a year in advance.

The current forecast from the models is for things to warm up significantly by the weekend, and also for much less rain at least for the next week or so. This is in complete contrast to David King's forecast for May, which is rain (8th), very rainy (15th), rain (22nd) and rain (29th). He also warns of a cold period between 11th and 15th May ("ice maidens"), which is interesting in view of the temperature prediction from the GFS model:



This shows the 2m air temperature (and rainfall at the bottom), and while it is a long way off and subject to change, its interesting that the minimum just touches the 0C line slap in the middle of the "ice maidens" dates.

I'm finding this increasingly fascinating, so I thought I would throw this into the mix for interest. Feel free to dismiss it as mumbo jumbo if you wish!