Penellype's Weather Channel

[1Bee]

You know, I had so hoped that this summer would be better than last year, simply because it surely couldn't be worse...

Mind you, I still had good harvests from many things, so not to moan. I do wish things would warm up enough to get motoring on the plot, though.

[muck lover]

It mightn’t be always good, but our weather certainly isn’t boring. I’m not putting away the thermals yet.

[Penellype]

The day is now officially longer than the night. Spring equinox occurred at 4.15 pm today.

Let's hope the weather gets the message...

[bikermike]

Metcheck's 6-month predictions look a bit on the cooler side (August all sub-25C), OK, the actual numbers are going to be wrong at this distance, but it looks like they think it will be a cooler summer...

[Penellype]

Dare I say it, the models have slightly backed off the cold and snowy Easter. It will still be chilly and there could well be some frosty nights, but at the moment the very cold upper air doesn't quite make it into the UK this time and at the moment we are slightly less in the firing line for a bitterly cold northerly wind.

As it is still over a week away there is plenty of time for things to change, but the ensembles are looking slightly less dire now:



It is still colder than average, the jet stream is still to the south, and there is plenty of rain forecast, some of which could be snow. The main risk of snow on the current run seems to be in Scotland and over northern hills, although it could be more widespread for a short while around Easter Monday.

In the meantime we still have low pressure lurking close to the country which means it will be changeable. As the sun is rapidly getting stronger now, any sunny days will feel pleasantly warm, but clear nights can still lead to frosts. A deeper low pressure is likely to bring some quite windy weather around Wednesday and associated fronts could lead to quite a bit of rain towards the end of next week.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Thanks goodness for better news. I could resist no longer yesterday so it is now in the lap of the gods.

[Nicos]

Any Easter updates Pen?
Looks like we have cold, blustery rain to look forward to?

[Penellype]

Things are still very uncertain as we head into April. While Easter no longer looks like being "beast from the east part 3" it will still be cold and there is a big question mark over bank holiday monday. The problem is that by then there is a huge temperature gradient across the country with double figures in the south and near freezing in the far north. In between is a front with large amounts of rain, and this could turn to snow as it meets the cold air. It could also get stuck over parts of central England and Wales (too soon to say exactly where) giving huge falls of rain, sleet or possibly snow, extending into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. This needs watching.

Further ahead the uncertainty is huge, with vast swings between model runs. Compare yesterday's mid day ensemble run for York:



with the most recent midnight run:



In yesterday's run the ensembles show mainly warmer than average upper air temperatures (above 0 degrees) around 5/6/7 April. In the midnight run most of the members are down to upper air temperatures nearing -10. The culprit is again an easterly wind due to low pressure to the south. This is NOT good news.

I notice that The Weather Outlook has changed their ensembles page to show graphs for various cities all on the same page, which is extremely interesting: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/tw...-forecast.aspx. The layout is too big to screenshot but it is well worth a look. This morning's charts show that while southern areas can expect some sort of warmth at times, the current forecast for the north is unremittingly cold.

David King has posted his April forecast: http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....April_2018.pdf

He has a special message for gardeners (in red), saying that spring is at least 4 weeks late this year and very cold and wet. He suggests delaying planting bedding plants and other tender plants until after 23rd May. I am not saying he is right, I am just passing the information on.

[Potstubsdustbins]

Pen you always seem to be some where near

So could you please forecast some....sun ...oh and some warmth while your at it pretty please.

[Penellype]

There may be some sun (away from the south) tomorrow, but a front will move north during the day. Warmth is harder. Currently its hard to see us reaching double figures north of the midlands for at least the next 10 days, although this could possibly change.

We need to get rid of the trough over Spain. Until that happens and the jet stream moves north we are going to keep getting these cold, wet spells I'm afraid.

[Penellype]

Still a lot of uncertainty about Monday's snow risk. The Met Office have a warning for snow which has already changed once and is likely to do so again https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings. There are also various warnings of heavy rain.

Remember that snow is one of the hardest things to forecast. The difference between rain and snow is very small, and this is probably marginal anyway except over high ground, but because of the disruptive potential of snow the warnings tend to be on the "safe side".

Timing is still open to question too. The GFS model, which most of the weather apps use, currently has the snow risk confined mostly to Scotland and north west England on Monday, whereas almost all the other models have the front responsible much further south. This would bring the risk of snow down into the midlands or northern England.

Even where there is no snow, it is going to be very wet, and after a very wet day today in the south and generally tomorrow, there has to be the potential for flooding. There are already several flood alerts and warnings - see https://flood-warning-information.se...ov.uk/warnings for details.

[Potstubsdustbins]

From about 3-30pm onwards it has been throwing it down here, constant rain and very heavy at times.

[Penellype]

The good news is that after this cold and miserable bank holiday weekend the temperatures are likely to rise. A warm front is moving up from the south tomorrow, and it is this that may give some snow in places, most likely over high ground and more generally over Scotland. The winds swing into a more southerly direction as the front passes over. Its not exactly summer, but it will be much more like the sort of temperatures you would expect in April, and we might actually get into high double figures n places by next weekend.

The less good news is that it is likely to continue to be wet at times, with low pressure not far away. there should be the odd day when it is dry, but there will continue to be fronts with bands of rain and showers at regular intervals for the foreseeable future.

This is today's ensemble chart for York:



The warming trend is clear, although the odd member still shows some colder spells. Tomorrow's warm front is shown by a sharp rise in temperature coinciding with a large rainfall spike.

[1Bee]

Like likety like...

[geepee]

At least sounding better....April showers and slightly warmer temp's ...bliss.

Sterling stuff Pen' Thanks for your info'.
Gp