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Thread: Penellype's Weather Channel

  1. #1033
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    You are our oracle.

    Iron-hard frosts here, but not snow exactly where we are. Plenty in Cumbria as a whole, though!

  2. #1034
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    A real patchwork of weather warnings for snow and ice today in various parts of the UK https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings.

    Frequent and sometimes heavy snow showers are blowing in off the north sea and these are moving much further inland than the warning area (reaching Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield for example). At the same time the air is warming up and lying snow is starting to melt in places. The ground is very cold underneath and this is a classic skating rink scenario, so please take care out there!
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    Today should be the last of the cold days, at least for now. There may be a frost early tonight in eastern areas, but milder weather is moving in from the west, with inevitable wind and rain. This is the start of a more changeable and milder spell, with fewer frosts and more in the way of rain, especially in the west.

    Whether we have seen the last of the winter cold is another matter. Although the shorter term models seem to be pointing towards less cold weather, there is still time for more cold and snow, and it is simply too soon to tell whether or not the cold will return.
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  4. #1036
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    The weather is about to become much more active with a very windy 2nd half of the week, particularly in the south at first, but generally from Friday to Sunday as low pressure systems move in. Bands of rain will cross the country as well, heaviest in the north and west. There are yellow warnings for wind covering much of the UK and one for rain in parts of Scotland https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings.

    As the low moves away on Saturday the wind will turn into the north and it will become much colder. There is the potential for some wintery showers over the weekend. High pressure then builds from the south, bringing drier weather. As always, the effect of this on the temperature will depend on the position of the high. If it is centred to the east it will bring mild south westerly winds, if over the top of us we are likely to have frost and fog, if to the west it will remain cold. Models can't make up their minds exactly where this high pressure goes, although the consensus appears to favour mild weather for the middle of February. We shall see.
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  5. #1037
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    Well, the high pressure settled to the east of us and as a result the temperature now feels more like April than February. There will be a slightly cooler few days from tomorrow with a little rain, mostly in the north west before the high builds again in much the same place later in the week. Newspaper headlines forecasting snow look miles wide of the mark as the setup favoured by all of the models looks more favourable for temperatures in the high teens next weekend. It is possible that the February record of 19.7 degrees might be broken if conditions pan out correctly. A gradual return to more normal values by the end of the month looks likely but this is too far out to be sure at the moment.

    This winter has been notably dry and following on from a hot dry summer, we could really do with some rain to fill the reservoirs and aquifers. There isn't any sign of substantial rain in the short term.

    Given that most of the winter forecasts were for a cold and somewhat wet winter, with particular emphasis on a cold February, once again the one that overall appears to be most correct is David King's, which makes interesting reading with hindsight http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....ary%202019.pdf. His spring forecast has just appeared on his website http://www.weatherwithouttechnology....rch_to_May.pdf.

    While I would not recommend planning from this on a day by day basis, as it is sometimes wrong (or out by a few days), I continue to find it more than a little interesting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Penellype View Post
    This winter has been notably dry and following on from a hot dry summer, we could really do with some rain to fill the reservoirs and aquifers. There isn't any sign of substantial rain in the short term.
    Does seem very early in the year to be having moorland fires!

  7. #1039
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    I looked up the average January rainfall for the York area and its 80-100mm. The local weather station here recorded just 27mm for the whole of January. We did have a bit at the beginning of February, but nowhere near enough to make up the shortfall.
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  8. #1040
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    Some dense fog patches around this morning, with yellow warnings issued by the Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2019-02-24. The fog should clear to give a warm and mainly sunny day.

    Unlike yesterday when a weak front brought some cloud and rain to some western areas, the next few days should be dry pretty much throughout the UK, after any fog clears. The north west of Scotland may see some light rain from time to time. The winter (yes it is still winter for a few more days) heatwave continues with the warmest temperatures possible tomorrow and Tuesday. The February record in Scotland has already been passed a couple of days ago and if conditions work out just right it is possible that the UK February record of 19.7C may follow. It will not be the warmest February on record because of the cooler first half of the month.

    The chart for mid day tomorrow tells the story, with a large area of high pressure centred over and to the east of us, dragging the air up from north Africa and southern Europe. The isobars are wide apart, hence the tendency to form fog, particularly over England.

    Penellype's Weather Channel-mon-25-feb.jpg

    Later in the week the high begins to weaken and slip slowly south and low pressure starts to break through. This results in lower temperatures (more normal for the time of year) and more unsettled weather as is clearly seen from the ensemble chart for York:

    Penellype's Weather Channel-ens-24-jan.jpg

    It is worth noting that the breakdown of the high has been moved a day or 2 later in the past couple of days, and it is still in the unreliable timeframe. Models have a tendency to try to revert to normal, which is high to the south and lows passing over or to the north of us at this time of year with westerly winds. Therefore it is possible that the dry conditions may continue for longer than this, although a reduction in temperatures is very likely. Where we go from there is very uncertain, but although there are a few lines dipping down to -10 on the ensemble chart, these look to be brief northerly winds as lows move away, and there is no sign (on this chart) of any prolonged cold in the first part of March. It will feel a lot colder than it does now though!

    (Note - since I last posted one of these charts the vertical temperature scale has been changed and therefore the high and low points look more extreme. The new scale does enable you to see more clearly that the red average line for the time of year is going up, as you would expect in March.)
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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