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Thread: Penellype's Weather Channel

  1. #1017
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    Penellype is online now Mature Fruiter
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    Happy New Year all!

    A cold front is moving south today with colder, clearer air behind it but very little rain. Nights will be colder with frost much more likely and fog a possibility too.

    High pressure is going to stick around for at least the next week, possibly rather longer. This means little or no rain:

    Penellype's Weather Channel-ens-1-jan.jpg

    The colder upper air temperatures are clear to see, but don't be fooled by the rise over the weekend, as this won't be reflected on the surface. The warm upper air will move over the top of the colder surface air, resulting in an inversion, which will probably simply trap cloud and chilly air underneath it.

    Longer term there is huge uncertainty with the GFS wanting to keep high pressure in almost the same place by day 10:

    Penellype's Weather Channel-gfs-11-jan.jpg

    while the ECMWF moves the high to Scandinavia by day 10, pulling in colder air from the east:

    Penellype's Weather Channel-ecmwf-11-jan.jpg

    This is not a "beast from the east" scenario (yet) as the air is coming from a south easterly source, but it could easily evolve into a much colder pattern without much adjustment.

    This is only one run and one solution, and simply serves to illustrate the differences between the models and consequently the uncertainty in the forecasts. Yesterday's ECMWF run had the high moving closer to Greenland (also a cold solution), while the GFS was keener to let the atlantic lows bring milder, wet and windy weather this way shortly after day 10.

    The message is to take any forecasts beyond about 5-7 days with a pinch of salt, and any attention-grabbing newspaper headlines as pure speculation, but expect it to feel rather colder than recently for at least a week.
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

  2. #1018
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    Just been watching the racing from Cheltenham (as I am still struck down with the Lurgy). One of the owners made a very interesting observation. She mentioned that the drought had lasted well into November and interrupted her racing season . However she also made a throw away comment about there being no (substantial) rain in the forecast for 2 months (unless I heard wrong). I thought it interesting that we tend not to talk about dry winters, cold yes, windy yes, wet even, but dry no. Looking at the ensembles there is limited precipitation, which if it persists, could be interesting on the back of a very dry summer.

    Living in the north west though I do find it difficult to comprehend of "dry" It's all relative I guess
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  3. #1019
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    Penellype is online now Mature Fruiter
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    Sorry Chippy Minton, only just seen your post.

    As with most weather-related things, "dry" is a relative term. Measurements are compared with the average and amounts of rain can vary tremendously over short distances. In general it has been a drier than average year with much of the rain falling in the spring and most of the summer rain being from showers and storms that were localized and sometimes torrential. Therefore, where I am we have had around average rainfall total for the year, fields are standing in water in places (although this is slowly disappearing) and yet the Met Office anomaly maps for 2018 show that for Yorkshire every single month this year has been drier than average, many notably so. Yorkshire Water are worried about the reservoir levels. This is difficult to understand when the allotment was under 4 inches of water at the end of July and the soil surface has not dried out since. Torrential local downpours do nothing to fill reservoirs unless they are upstream of them.

    Currently we are under a strong ridge of high pressure, which means basically dry. For York that often means not quite dry as we tend to get showers coming in off the North Sea with some orientations of the high pressure. The next week or so looks pretty dry away from Scotland and the north west, where there will be more in the way of rain as low pressure systems skirt round the top of the high. There may be a little light rain elsewhere from associated fronts, but for the time of year it is very dry.

    The models want to bring low pressure back at some point around or after next weekend, although they keep pushing this back. Everything is very uncertain because nobody really knows the effect of the sudden stratospheric warming yet, so virtually anything could happen after this. The general consensus is that things are likely to get colder but whether we get a prolonged cold spell or just short cold snaps with milder interludes is up for grabs at present. Cold air holds less moisture than mild air, so the likelihood is that we will continue with the drier than average theme for a while yet.
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    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

  4. #1020
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    I haven't done a weather post for a bit because I've been waiting for some sort of agreement between the models. That does not seem to be forthcoming, but I thought I'd better post something!

    Currently it is fairly mild for January, and that will continue for the next couple of days with the wind coming from a westerly direction. Around Wednesday the high pressure that has been around since Christmas will start to slip away to the south. As it does so a cold front moves south through the country introducing a colder, northerly wind. Nothing drastic, just a colder feel, with rain and potentially snow over hills in the northern half of the country. It's after this that the fun starts.

    A brief ridge of high pressure builds on Thursday, within cold air, making Thursday a colder day. The high is under attack from low pressure to the west, but the models differ significantly as to how this plays out.

    The GFS wants to bring the low in fairly quickly on Friday, with rain preceded by a little snow on the leading edge. After a chilly weekend, milder air essentially wins the battle and we are off into a series of lows and highs, with rain bands interspersed with brighter and showery weather, sometimes windy or possibly stormy later.

    The ECMWF is not having that at all. The high pressure from Thursday sticks stubbornly over us, giving colder days and nights with frost, but probably mainly dry. Eventually the atlantic breaks through in the middle of next week (on this morning's run), with what looks like a very strong storm which could well start with a real dumping of snow.

    Neither of these is a "beast from the east" scenario, contrary to what the papers would have us believe. However there are signs in the unreliable extended timeframe of the shorter term models that high pressure may be starting to build to the north, which would bring colder weather this way. This agrees with the longer term models such as the CFS, which have consistently been predicting "northern blocking" for February (and March and April) for some time now. This is not unexpected after a sudden stratospheric warming, and we will just have to wait and see how things pan out. I am working on the assumption that a possibly fairly lengthy cold spell is more likely than not, as this seems the safest policy this year.
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

  5. #1021
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    It definitely has an icy bite to the wind this afternoon here in Alnwick.....I almost needed to put a coat on!!!!

    I picked a good week to be off as I've got loads done on the plot It no longer looks like a mess
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  6. #1022
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    Yellow warnings tonight into tomorrow for snow (much of Scotland) and ice (much of UK) as the colder weather starts to make its presence felt. There may also be wintery showers elsewhere - the east coast could see snow showers as the wind is from the north.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...ate=2019-01-16
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    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

  7. #1023
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    Yellow warning of snow today, mainly over higher ground in the north. Snow is very difficult to forecast accurately and warnings may appear or be updated at short notice. Keep an eye on the met office warnings page, especially if you need to travel.
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

  8. #1024
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    Thanks Pene. Stay safe, everyone.
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