Penellype's Weather Channel

[Penellype]

Thunderstorm warnings for today (in the west)and tomorrow over night into Saturday (most places) - take care if you are planning to be outside as these could be violent after the very hot weather.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-06-25

[Chippy Minton]

Home office has reached 29.6C and the sun's not come round to this side of the house yet. Expecting it to hit 30C this afternoon and therefore be officially "warm"

[Penellype]

Completely different weather now that the storms have moved through. Low pressure is bringing plenty of rain and showers and cooler air, but also some quite windy weather especially in the north tomorrow and Monday. Gales are quite likely, so make sure that plants are tied in and garden furniture is secure.

[Nicos]

20°C cooler today than 2days ago!!!!

Bliss

[bramble]

15 degs here and lashing rain.

[Penellype]

Another wet and windy weekend coming up, as a deepening low pressure arrives. There is a yellow warning of wind Saturday night into Sunday morning for southern Scotland and northern England. Again, make sure plants are well supported and garden furniture is secure - this could be more like the sort of thing you would expect in October. There is some doubt about how much the low will deepen, but expect it to be unusually windy for July.

[Penellype]

Not quite sure what anyone can do about it at this time of year, but an unseasonably chilly night coming up tonight. Forecast to drop to mid single figures in northern and western areas (one of the weather apps is forecasting a minimum of 5 here) so if you are in a frost-prone area it might be an idea to protect any very tender plants just in case.

[1Bee]

Looks like it'll miss here, thank goodness.

[Mr Bones]

Thanks for the heads-up Pen

[Nicos]

Thanks for the warning Pen.
I've just checked and it looks like I'm fine tonight...but always worth checking!!!! Nothing would surprise me anymore

[Penellype]

Well, I think that must be a first - a forecast of 5 degrees and a blight alert on the same day! We actually only dropped to about 10C last night, so clearly the forecast I saw had got it wrong.

The system that brought the rain yesterday contained the remains of tropical storm Edouard, as as I have said before, the weather models handle these storm remains badly at times.

The models are in general not performing well. There is serious disagreement about what happens after a weekend of better weather (due to a ridge of high pressure) with some models breaking this down as early as Monday and returning to unsettled weather for the rest of the week while others keep high pressure fairly close, particularly for the south. However the long range models seem determined to have us under a warm dry area of high pressure for the rest of July and into August. It really is bizarre that week 1 should be so contradictory. If I was betting on it my money would be on unsettled weather returning to some degree after the weekend, particularly for the north and west. Not good for those wanting to make hay.

[sandspider]

Hi P! Any thoughts on what August is likely to be like? If you have a minute to spare...

Been quite nice and sunny and wet recently, everything is growing like mad. Can't do much cutting back though due to a bad case of tendonitis!

[Penellype]

Hi P! Any thoughts on what August is likely to be like? If you have a minute to spare...

Been quite nice and sunny and wet recently, everything is growing like mad. Can't do much cutting back though due to a bad case of tendonitis!

Oh dear, I hope the tendonitis gets better soon.

Long range forecasting is difficult and basically mostly guesswork. My thoughts (guesses) for August are:
The long range models have been forecasting high pressure for August, just as they did for July. There is no evidence that they are going to be right, and some have started backing off the high pressure idea, as there is no sign of sustained high pressure on the shorter range models which now go near to the end of July.
High pressure appears to be taking hold in the arctic. Such "northern blocking" is never a good sign in summer - it sends low pressures south of their normal summer track, which usually means over the top of us.
The atlantic is warm, especially to the south of Greenland. This tends to favour high pressure over the warm area, putting us on the cold side of any ridge.
The Azores high keeps trying to ridge into the UK (it is doing so at the moment which is why it is a bit drier), but the lows keep knocking the ridge back, sending cooler air in from the north. As a result the south is generally much drier than the north and west.
Signs in the tropics (ENSO, MJO, AAM, which I don't fully understand) appear to be pointing to a continuation of the unsettled pattern we have currently.

Given this evidence, and the fact that August tends to be rather more unsettled than June or July on average, my guess for August is that it is likely to continue to be rather cool and changeable especially in the north. I think we had "summer" in April and May.

Sorry.

[Nicos]

Good to know Pen -thanks.
You seem to be more accurate than anywhere else I check out the forecast!

[sandspider]

Many thanks for the thoughts, P!


Agreed with Nicos above too