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  • Bren In Pots
    replied
    Thanks Pen looking at the map I’m in between 2 areas of snow hopefully it’ll miss me.
    Stay safe everyone if you’re out and about.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Multiple warnings now issued for tonight and tomorrow, including a rare RED danger to life warning for wind down the east coast from northern Scotland down to south of Newcastle. Structural damage and power cuts are expected - please do take care if you live in the warning area.

    As well as the wind warnings there is a yellow warning of snow down the central spine of the country.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2021-11-26

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  • Penellype
    replied
    A nasty little low pressure (storm Arwen) will move south down the north sea tonight, bringing severe gales and a lot of rain/sleet/snow. Blizzard conditions are likely over high ground in the north and there are yellow and amber warnings for wind as well. Becoming colder afterwards.

    Make sure garden furniture, wheelie bins etc are put away or secured as this is very much windier than anything we have seen for a long time.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    The models continue to play with the possibility of cold weather. After a couple of warmer days at the end of this week, the wind will turn into the north over the weekend as a cold front moves south bringing some rain with it. High pressure then returns but with a cooler air mass so overnight frosts are likely next week.

    The scenario that the models are agreed on at the moment is that at the end of next week the high pressure pulls back out into the atlantic and ridges towards Greenland. This pulls cold air down from the arctic, and if it works out as some of the models are suggesting, it could be very cold and snowy. It is far too early to be certain and everything depends on the position of the high pressure and how far north it goes. If it sets itself up over Greenland we could be looking at an extended cold spell lasting into December.

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  • Jay22
    replied
    No frosts here as yet. Thanks for keeping us updated Pen!

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Couple of frosts here a week or so ago, but warmed up again.

    Thanks for the updates, Pen.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Models backing off the cold a little today, but some signals still there. Don't believe newspaper stories about a polar vortex plunging us into the depths of winter - that is just clickbait and is NOT what I am talking about. Frost is still a possibility though, as always at this time of year.

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  • Chippy Minton
    replied
    Thanks Pen, citrus plants going in the greenhouse this weekend, chillies for the compost.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Thanks Pen….good to know!

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Increasing signals from most models for a cold snap in around 10 days time. Northerly winds could bring widespread frost and some sleet or snow showers to northern and eastern areas if the coldest of the predictions is correct. This is not yet a done deal - there are plenty of ensemble members that do not go cold, but the operational runs (the highest resolution and therefore in theory the most accurate) are consistently showing this at the moment.

    If you still have tender plants outside that you want to keep, be prepared to cover or move them.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by Containergardener View Post
    Yep we certainly got the rain with those weather warnings , flooding and demolished bridges.
    Now the frost. Much prefer the cold bright weather to more rain.
    Thanks Pen
    Sorry to hear about the flooding and the bridges . Thankfully the next few days look rather drier away from the north of Scotland, with some showers but not a deluge.

    Likely to be frosty in many places tonight - the coldest night so far. Temperatures will be up and down after that as low pressure systems pass to the north, with high pressure to the south ridging in between. In the unreliable timeframe (2 weeks +) it is possible that it may become wetter if the high moves east and develops, as this may cause lows to become stuck over us. Very uncertain though.

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  • Containergardener
    replied
    Yep we certainly got the rain with those weather warnings , flooding and demolished bridges.
    Now the frost. Much prefer the cold bright weather to more rain.
    Thanks Pen

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Some very wet weather over the north west today with yellow and amber warnings in place. A weather front has become stuck and will move only slowly over the next couple of days.

    Meanwhile very warm and moist air is being drawn up from the Azores, leading to warm but mostly cloudy weather. It will become more unsettled for all areas over the weekend, with the beginning of next week looking very wet. After this it will become colder for the start of November with a risk of night frost in vulnerable areas.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    I notice my weather forecasts ( northern Normandy so similar to southern England) say rain daily as from Tuesday…. Thanks for the heads up confirming it.

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Quite a chilly night coming up tonight before the weather starts to break over the weekend. Low pressure pushing in off the atlantic will turn things much more wet and windy, probably for the rest of October, although things could change if another hurricane appears (nothing happening in that department at the moment). Although it will be quite warm at first with the air coming up from the azores, there is the potential for some colder weather with northerly winds towards the end of next week. This can of course change, but the models are fairly consistent with this signal at the moment. Frosts could be possible even in the south if the currently forecast pattern arrives.
    Last edited by Penellype; 15-10-2021, 06:10 AM.

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