Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

Some gorgeous spring weather coming up next week with temperatures in the high teens for many places. Please do not be fooled into thinking that the threat of cold weather has gone. The models are gradually firming up on the possibility of a cold snap around the end of the month, which would be quite enough to produce some damaging frosts and possibly a bit of snow. Very early days at the moment and everything could change, but the potential is there.

[Penellype]

Thankfully somewhat drier for the next few days - yesterday was awful here with rain all day. The models have been split recently between a colder and a milder outlook, depending as usual on the exact position of the high pressure. It looks as though milder is gradually winning the battle, although the next few days will have cold nights in many places due to clear skies. Things do remain uncertain though, and some of the model runs are still showing a colder spell from about 12th March although the majority are not now showing this. Rainfall will also depend on the position of the high pressure and whether or not it allows any low pressure to make inroads from the west.

[sandspider]

Looks like we're in for a few drier days but colder nights. Dry is good, my daffs are getting soggy and dejected, but warmer would be nice too!

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen, it looks we have sunshine all day today so a good time to be out and about.

[Penellype]

Today looks like being the best day of the upcoming week. Despite higher pressure than we have been used to, there seems likely to be a fair amount of rain around during the week, moving around as the week progresses. This is disappointing given the forecast a couple of days ago. The models seem very unsure of what is actually going to happen and there is a possibility of something rather colder by the end of the week if the high pressure drifts north, pulling the wind into the east. By no means all of the models show this, but it is a possibility.

[Nicos]

Looks dry enough tomorrow to Cuprinol our garage….brill!

[Nicos]

Fantastic news Pen Thanks.

[Penellype]

Quite a blizzard for a short time while I was in Harrogate visiting my Mum. Thankfully it wasn't enough to cause any problems.

High pressure is now forecast to build into next week, after a sudden flip in the model output. The position of the high will determine whether we have sunshine or cloud, frost and fog or warmth, but in the strengthening sunshine it should feel very pleasant during the daytime as the wind should drop after the weekend.

[Bren In Pots]

We’ve had a mix of rain, hail then lastly snow here today.

[Plot70]

Our hail arrived when we were at Chesterfield market.
My single Daffodil on my plot was fully open with several others in bud.

[quanglewangle]

I have just spotted a daff on my allotment that is just about to open and attract those hail stones we always get when the daffs are in flower....

As predicted. Daffodils and hail... Cold front passed through about 0300.

[Penellype]

Thanks for the explanation Pen.

Another year with late frosts would mean a second year for us with no apples, plums, pears,cherries
Fingers crossed ….

Same here - my fruit harvest (apart from the white currants) was very poor last year probably because there seemed to be no bees around at all until about May. I remember several sharp frosts, which seemed to occur on windy nights (almost unheard of as frosty nights are normally calm) and covering things with fleece was impossible. I even gave up trying to protect the potatoes, the first time ever that I have not been able to do so.

[Nicos]

Thanks for the explanation Pen.

Another year with late frosts would mean a second year for us with no apples, plums, pears,cherries
Fingers crossed ….

[Penellype]

Unfortunately there looks to be little chance of a significant change in the weather pattern for some time. The polar vortex is very strong, leading to the strong jet stream that is fuelling these low pressure systems. We can therefore expect more wet and windy periods interspersed with drier calmer days from brief ridges of higher pressure. Hopefully the jet stream will be further north for the rest of this week which means that the worst of the wind should be to the north of Scotland, but it will still be windy at times.

I believe this is the first time there have been 3 named storms within a week since the naming system started in 2015.

What is starting to happen, in the stratosphere, is some warming over Europe. This moves anticlockwise round the pole, and seems likely to weaken and/or displace the polar vortex within the next couple of weeks. IF this propagates down into the troposphere (where weather occurs), it should dampen down the jet stream a bit, which would at least mean that the low pressure systems contain less energy and therefore less wind.

The downside of this is that a sudden lift in temperature over the pole sometimes translates to high latitude high pressure (blocking) a few weeks later. This could then lead to a cold spell just when we don't want it, in April. However, nothing is certain and all depends on if the blocking appears and where.

[Bren In Pots]

For the last couple of days it's been wind, snow, hail and rain here.