Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Nicos]

Good news for now then!…thanks Pen

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen

[Penellype]

Another mild spell at the moment, but be warned, the models are showing cold again towards the end of March. Please remember that just because we have a few days that feel more like spring it doesn't mean the risk of frost has gone. Look at the latest GFS ensembles for 26th March to the end of the month - while probably not as cold as the recent cold spell, there would be frosty nights and it would be cold enough for snow.



For clarity, the temperatures shown are for 850hPa which is around 5000 feet up - it won't be as cold as that down here. The red line is the 30 year average and the white line is the average of the 30 ensemble runs. This is for York, but graphs for further south are only slightly less cold.

There is time for this to change, but there is fairly good agreement for this at this timescale, so don't get too enthusiastic with the summer veg just yet!

[Penellype]

I'll have to look at netweather.tv as I want to spray herbicide on my new compound I have for a large allotment to kill all the grass prior to opening up the top soil with a spade prior to using my large rotavator on it. I need a period of 24hrs where there is no rain so it will be taken in by the grass into the roots.

Netweather TV radar won't give you 24hrs notice - it shows what was happening where for the last 2 hours or so at 5 minute intervals. There is a lot of low pressure about at the moment and finding a 24hr dry slot is going to be challenging I'm afraid.

[Muddy_Boots]

I'll have to look at netweather.tv as I want to spray herbicide on my new compound I have for a large allotment to kill all the grass prior to opening up the top soil with a spade prior to using my large rotavator on it. I need a period of 24hrs where there is no rain so it will be taken in by the grass into the roots.

[Plot70]

I use the met office and accuview and also for east midlands Sheffield weather.
https://www.sheffieldweather.net/gauges.htm

[Bren In Pots]

Pen I usually look at the BBC and Met Office both usually differ
Thanks for the heads up I'll have a look at netweather.tv.

[Nicos]

Looks like it’s going to be a matter of we’ll get what we get then eh?
Thanks for the explanation Pen. Always appreciated.

[Penellype]

The weather models were pretty accurate regarding the cold spell, although a lot of uncertainty remains about the location and amount of any snow. Northern Scotland looks in line for plenty, but away from there it looks likely that snow showers will affect the north east coast tomorrow and Tuesday with the affected area extending further south on Tuesday, possibly into East Anglia. There is also a cold front moving south tomorrow night which may produce some snow, or may just be rain and sleet. Elsewhere there is a lot of disagreement between the models concerning areas of low pressure coming in from the west mid week. These are being squeezed south by the cold air, with some models taking them into France while others have the northern edges clipping the south and producing snow. Some models have low pressure further north on Wednesday night, giving snow over Wales, some runs including parts or all of the midlands as well. Some models have quite a bit of snow cover by Thursday over much of the country, others have very little.

Snow is just about the hardest weather type to forecast. If you need to go anywhere mid week the best advice is to look at the radar on netweather.tv, which has an option to show the precipitation type and shows radar images at 5 minute intervals with about 10 minutes delay. You can then get an idea of what is heading your way which will be more accurate than weather apps, which are often pretty useless. As an example of the "accuracy" of a supposedly high resolution weather app, according to Windfinder's superforecast, issued this afternoon, this morning was sunny in York. In fact there was no blue sky at all for the whole day, and the latest forecast, issued at 7.52pm shows much more cloud, but still sunny intervals at 11am. It can't even get it right after it has happened.

[Penellype]

Looks like a hard frost here this week, which is annoying as the apricot tree has blossom buds on it Time to play hunt the fleece

My apricot tree has breaking buds too. I've about given up any idea of apricots as this is year 6 and although I have had flowers every year, I've not had anything that even vaguely resembles an apricot.

[Chippy Minton]

Looks like a hard frost here this week, which is annoying as the apricot tree has blossom buds on it Time to play hunt the fleece

[Bren In Pots]

Just been looking at the weather sites and we're back into minus figures next week.

[Nicos]

We had wet snow today pen. Bitter winds beforehand

[Penellype]

After a long period of indecision the models are now firming up on a colder period next week, probably due to the effects of the SSW. The high pressure currently over and to the north of us will move north and west towards Greenland, drawing in a cold north or northeasterly wind. Looking at the charts from today's model runs it looks likely that there will be troughs or small areas of low pressure embedded in the flow, and where these occur there is likely to be some snow. It is far too soon to say where or how much of this there will be, and there is plenty of time for it to change.

The message is be warned, it is going to get quite a bit colder even though it will officially be spring.

[Plot70]

The snow I was thinking of would have been late March into April 1986.
It stayed on the ground for a few days.