Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[sandspider]

Thank you, P. Appreciate the thoughts, as ever.

Will check firewood supplies again!

[Penellype]

It is still winter. February has been very warm so far - the central England temperature is currently nearly FOUR degrees above average for the month. This week is forecast to be warm, with night time temperatures in some places warmer than the usual average for daytime. This is likely to fool plants and animals into thinking that winter is over, but that is unlikely to be the case.

The weather models are struggling because the current situation is unprecedented. The Atlantic is still very warm, and this is what has been fuelling the very wet conditions experienced by most of the UK. Otherwise the main weather drivers indicate colder conditions are likely. The MJO and QBO are both in phases that favour colder weather here, and El Nino often leads to a cold end to winter. The stratosphere is currently in a state where a warming across the north pole is about to take place, and this can lead to colder conditions a few weeks later. The models will be picking up on all of these drivers, hence the forecast for cold, possibly into April.

However, the models have been very wrong at times this year. At the start of winter they were forecasting a cold winter with a lot of high pressure over the north pole. This has appeared from time to time, but has been overcome by strong low pressure systems which have brought the milder, wetter conditions. I am therefore taking further forecasts of extensive and persistent "northern blocking" with a pinch of salt. March and April are still too far away to forecast with any accuracy and my take on it is that the models really haven't a clue.

What does look likely is that around this time next week the weather will probably get colder for a while and there may be some snow. This does not look like a big freeze at this stage but there are likely to be frosty nights at times. How long this lasts is very uncertain, but almost certainly winter is going to have at least one more bite before it finishes.

[sandspider]

The various longer range forecasts I look at (I know, they're mainly guess work at time scales of more than a few days!) show cold nights, low single figures, into April...

[sandspider]

When do you think things might start to warm up, P? Had a couple of hopeful warmer spells here and it's getting quite pleasant when the sun's out. But then the rain and the cold come again, as per usual!

[Plot70]

Lets just hope that the cold weather gets its job over and done with before April so that we can get planting.
I need another cold snap soon to help get rid of all the slugs that have been hiding in that rubbish on the other side of the boundary now that the wind has exposed them.

[Containergardener]

Just 4 degrees here, would love some double figures.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen, the forecasts aren't looking very good, it just seems to be one storm after another.

[Penellype]

Yes, the jet stream has ramped up and is fuelling storms at the moment. Storm Isha deepened very quickly as it approached us and was unusual in that the strong winds covered a very large area. We had a thunderstorm here yesterday evening that would not have looked out of place in summer. Tonight's storm Jocelyn bringing further wind and rain following so soon after Isha is definitely not welcome.

Thankfully after tonight things look to be going to calm down somewhat and it will generally be mild or very mild. It is possible that the record max temperature recorded on 23rd January (currently around 15 degrees) might be broken today.

It is still January and winter is not over yet. There are some signs, a long way off, that colder weather could return in February. However, this is far too far ahead to have any confidence in it, and predictions change with every run of the models. The colder runs are probably basing their predictions on a combination of the MJO which is forecast to return to a colder phase in February, plus effects of a sudden stratospheric warming that we had during the last week or so. This was an unusual warming in that it fitted the criteria for the definition of a SSW of a reversal in direction of the zonal winds, without the normal huge increase in temperature over the north pole (which happened in December without reversing the zonal winds). As this is not what normally happens during a SSW and the precise effects of SSWs are unpredictable in any case, forecasting what the results of it might be are probably beyond the scope of the weather models. Therefore longer range forecasts at the moment are best regarded as even more unreliable than normal.

[Plot70]

It is the wind now.
A bit of an old fence that is mostly gone now got blown over onto a pile of weeds and a newly planted garlic bed.
It did not do any damage. It went strait into the fire pit.

[Plot70]

Hopefully it will be cold enough to control the slugs.
Lets hope the cold ends in time for planting out in spring this year.
The cold lingered until July last year and even then it was not cold enough to keep the slugs down.

[Nicos]

Thanks for the warning Pen.
-6C at night forecast for us.
I’ll pop extra fleece on my geraniums in the barn.

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen just had a look and we have overnight lows of -1c for the next few days.

[Penellype]

The weather is about to get colder with overnight frost for many places. Thankfully it is also becoming drier as high pressure builds over the country. This could lead to fog in places. Some of the model runs have been showing the potential for some very cold air off the continent from around 16th January, possibly accompanied by snow. This is by no means certain at this range, but it is worth being aware of the possibility. No doubt the press will blow this up out of all proportion - it is normal for the weather to be cold at this time of year!

[Penellype]

Very mild here today Pen we've even switched the heating of.

Same here - mine has been off for the last 3-4days!

[Bren In Pots]

Very mild here today Pen we've even switched the heating of.