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Penellype's Weather Channel 2

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  • Well, my long term forecast for a cool and wet summer was somewhat inaccurate to say the least! Long term forecasting is just guesswork really.

    Next week looks l like producing a heatwave for several days, with some of the model runs again producing temperatures upto 40C by 16th, one of the runs this morning has 40C for 4 consecutive days, although hopefully that one won't verify. Some of the runs go much cooler (near average) at around the same time so there is a lot of uncertainty. What does seem more certain is that there is virtually no rain in the forecast, except for north west Scotland, for the next week at least.

    In the longer term there are hints that the 2nd half of August could be more unsettled, although whether this will reach the south east is debatable. The pressure pattern certainly seems to be rather stuck at the moment and if it does break down it could only be temporary, like the slightly wetter interlude that we have just had, at least in the north. As far as autumn is concerned, I really don't know.

    Most of the autumn/winter forecasts that I have seen (not many) seem to imply that high pressure will move north and give us a colder winter. I'm not sure about that - most of the main drivers (solar cycle, QBO in particular) are more favourable for a milder winter, but it is very, very early days. It is rare for a cold winter to follow a hot summer, and this is quite definitely a hot summer.
    A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP. - Leonard Nimoy

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    • Thanks Pen.
      "Nicos, Queen of Gooooogle" and... GYO's own Miss Marple

      Location....Normandy France

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