Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Containergardener]

Yep we certainly got the rain with those weather warnings , flooding and demolished bridges.
Now the frost. Much prefer the cold bright weather to more rain.
Thanks Pen

[Penellype]

Some very wet weather over the north west today with yellow and amber warnings in place. A weather front has become stuck and will move only slowly over the next couple of days.

Meanwhile very warm and moist air is being drawn up from the Azores, leading to warm but mostly cloudy weather. It will become more unsettled for all areas over the weekend, with the beginning of next week looking very wet. After this it will become colder for the start of November with a risk of night frost in vulnerable areas.

[Nicos]

I notice my weather forecasts ( northern Normandy so similar to southern England) say rain daily as from Tuesday…. Thanks for the heads up confirming it.

[Penellype]

Quite a chilly night coming up tonight before the weather starts to break over the weekend. Low pressure pushing in off the atlantic will turn things much more wet and windy, probably for the rest of October, although things could change if another hurricane appears (nothing happening in that department at the moment). Although it will be quite warm at first with the air coming up from the azores, there is the potential for some colder weather with northerly winds towards the end of next week. This can of course change, but the models are fairly consistent with this signal at the moment. Frosts could be possible even in the south if the currently forecast pattern arrives.

[Gillykat]

Thanks Pen

I'm getting stuck in to my allotment from tomorrow morning with my new brush-cutter so hoping to get as much done as possible before winter's bad weather does arrive. After a few years of being in a mental fug it feels good to actually feel excited and have plans for Plot 34

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen...much appreciated as I'm torn between gardening and indoor renovations at the moment, so high pressure for a bit longer is good news for me as it gives me more time!

[Penellype]

Sorry, been really busy and struggling to keep everything up to date!

The current warm and humid weather is a result of ex-hurricane Sam, which is currently to our west, drawing up warm air from the Azores. This is causing high pressure to build to its east, over us. During the weekend the low that was Sam moves south, and an associated cold front which is dumping rain over Scotland at the moment, will weaken and move south east, introducing cooler and less humid air from the west. There will be cloud and possibly a little rain associated with the cold front as it does this, but the high pressure remains basically in control.

Over the next week the temperature will depend on the position of the high pressure and the amount of cloud, which is always tricky to forecast with high pressure. There will be a risk of fog in places but I don't think it is likely to be cold enough for frost except on high ground. The high pressure looks well and truly stuck for probably at least the next 10 days, with the remains of Sam blocked to our west.

In the longer term what will probably eventually happen is that another ex-hurricane or tropical storm will join forces with Sam and become strong enough to shift the high pressure either to the east or south. When this will happen is very uncertain as these things are highly unpredictable due to the small size of the storms relative to the resolution of the weather models. Currently the models are forecasting the possibility of more unsettled weather from around 10 days time (but this is highly unreliable), and there is the possibility of colder weather arriving as a result of this around the last week of October (huge uncertainties).

In my opinion the possibility of a cold November and December is still on the cards. Remember though, this is little better than a guess.

[Nicos]

Any Autumn updates Pen?…this warm spell is sure to break soon?

[Penellype]

28 / 29C forecast today! Rain tomorrow or Thursday, but still quite warm. Rather pleasant in fact, though still cool at night.

The high pressure has finally shifted a bit further south and east, which has turned the wind from east or north east to south or south east, which is a much warmer direction and involves a lot less cloud. The rain later in the week may be in the form of thunderstorms and things are likely to cool down by the weekend.

[sandspider]

28 / 29C forecast today! Rain tomorrow or Thursday, but still quite warm. Rather pleasant in fact, though still cool at night.

[Penellype]

Wow, thanks Pen. What a fantastic and detailed post.

Please do remember that forecasting beyond 5 days is little better than guesswork and I could be completely wrong.

[Mr Bones]

Wow, thanks Pen. What a fantastic and detailed post.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen…brilliantly explained as usual

[sandspider]

Thanks P, I appreciate the detailed write up. Better batten down the hatches, as usual!

SS

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks for the info Pen.

Last winter we had some snow but nothing to stop traffic moving but it looks like this year might be different and much colder with it.