Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[Penellype]

The forecast for Christmas has been a complete nightmare, with the models changing their minds at least once a day and often contradicting each other. Having forecast cold with the possibility of snow in places yesterday, today they are (mostly) predicting a milder day with any snow restricted to higher ground in the north. There is a slim possibility they my have been right before - all depends on the track taken by a low pressure system currently to our west.

What does seem certain is that the next week or so will be much wetter than the last couple of weeks have been.

[Penellype]

More very wet and very windy weather in store from storm Barra in the next 48 hours or so. Winds are the main concern, especially for Ireland and the south west, but there are warnings for much of the UK. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2021-12-06. In addition there are orange and red warnings for parts of Ireland - see https://www.met.ie/tomorrow.html.

Take care if you are in the affected areas.

[Penellype]

Well THAT was an experience!!! Never known wind like it!!!! Storm Arwen arrived mid-afternoon and seemed to hit a peak here in Alnwick, Northumberland around 7.45pm when it was positively screaming around the flat I live in. I had three windows blow open and I had to secure them shut with wire!!! Then at 7.50 the power went off and didn't come back on until 1am. Luckily I've always had boxes of candles and tealights in my kitchen cupboards so I was able to continue writing a letter to my friend Nicole in Germany. There's been a lot of tiles and structural damage d treees blown down in the centre of town and we've had some squally snow showers since yesterday (not enough to lie though) and a hard frost is forecast tonight. I'll be popping up to the allotment tomorrow morning to see if my rotten & ramshackle shed has finally collapsed

Sounds scary! Thankfully it was not too bad here, although there were some nasty gusts and driving sleet at times. Thankfully it will be less windy tomorrow, although still cold. Milder mid week before the cold returns at the end of the week along with more rain/sleet/snow.

[Gillykat]

Well THAT was an experience!!! Never known wind like it!!!! Storm Arwen arrived mid-afternoon and seemed to hit a peak here in Alnwick, Northumberland around 7.45pm when it was positively screaming around the flat I live in. I had three windows blow open and I had to secure them shut with wire!!! Then at 7.50 the power went off and didn't come back on until 1am. Luckily I've always had boxes of candles and tealights in my kitchen cupboards so I was able to continue writing a letter to my friend Nicole in Germany. There's been a lot of tiles and structural damage d treees blown down in the centre of town and we've had some squally snow showers since yesterday (not enough to lie though) and a hard frost is forecast tonight. I'll be popping up to the allotment tomorrow morning to see if my rotten & ramshackle shed has finally collapsed

[Bren In Pots]

Thanks Pen looking at the map I’m in between 2 areas of snow hopefully it’ll miss me.
Stay safe everyone if you’re out and about.

[Penellype]

Multiple warnings now issued for tonight and tomorrow, including a rare RED danger to life warning for wind down the east coast from northern Scotland down to south of Newcastle. Structural damage and power cuts are expected - please do take care if you live in the warning area.

As well as the wind warnings there is a yellow warning of snow down the central spine of the country.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2021-11-26

[Penellype]

A nasty little low pressure (storm Arwen) will move south down the north sea tonight, bringing severe gales and a lot of rain/sleet/snow. Blizzard conditions are likely over high ground in the north and there are yellow and amber warnings for wind as well. Becoming colder afterwards.

Make sure garden furniture, wheelie bins etc are put away or secured as this is very much windier than anything we have seen for a long time.

[Penellype]

The models continue to play with the possibility of cold weather. After a couple of warmer days at the end of this week, the wind will turn into the north over the weekend as a cold front moves south bringing some rain with it. High pressure then returns but with a cooler air mass so overnight frosts are likely next week.

The scenario that the models are agreed on at the moment is that at the end of next week the high pressure pulls back out into the atlantic and ridges towards Greenland. This pulls cold air down from the arctic, and if it works out as some of the models are suggesting, it could be very cold and snowy. It is far too early to be certain and everything depends on the position of the high pressure and how far north it goes. If it sets itself up over Greenland we could be looking at an extended cold spell lasting into December.

[Jay22]

No frosts here as yet. Thanks for keeping us updated Pen!

[sandspider]

Couple of frosts here a week or so ago, but warmed up again.

Thanks for the updates, Pen.

[Penellype]

Models backing off the cold a little today, but some signals still there. Don't believe newspaper stories about a polar vortex plunging us into the depths of winter - that is just clickbait and is NOT what I am talking about. Frost is still a possibility though, as always at this time of year.

[Chippy Minton]

Thanks Pen, citrus plants going in the greenhouse this weekend, chillies for the compost.

[Nicos]

Thanks Pen….good to know!

[Penellype]

Increasing signals from most models for a cold snap in around 10 days time. Northerly winds could bring widespread frost and some sleet or snow showers to northern and eastern areas if the coldest of the predictions is correct. This is not yet a done deal - there are plenty of ensemble members that do not go cold, but the operational runs (the highest resolution and therefore in theory the most accurate) are consistently showing this at the moment.

If you still have tender plants outside that you want to keep, be prepared to cover or move them.

[Penellype]

Yep we certainly got the rain with those weather warnings , flooding and demolished bridges.
Now the frost. Much prefer the cold bright weather to more rain.
Thanks Pen

Sorry to hear about the flooding and the bridges . Thankfully the next few days look rather drier away from the north of Scotland, with some showers but not a deluge.

Likely to be frosty in many places tonight - the coldest night so far. Temperatures will be up and down after that as low pressure systems pass to the north, with high pressure to the south ridging in between. In the unreliable timeframe (2 weeks +) it is possible that it may become wetter if the high moves east and develops, as this may cause lows to become stuck over us. Very uncertain though.