Penellype's Weather Channel 2

[sandspider]

One fairly hard frost here on Tuesday night. Certainly feels a fair bit colder.

[Penellype]

The storms we have just had have contained the remains of 2 hurricanes - Epsilon and Zeta. Whether Zeta is responsible or not, the weather is thankfully about to become drier and less windy for the remainder of the week. It looks like higher pressure will then dominate for a while, but as often happens the models are not sure where the high is heading, with various options open. In general if the high heads south or east we are likely to return to milder, wetter conditions, if it heads north or west we will be colder.

Whatever happens the high pressure this week is likely to contain clear skies, at least at first, leading to potentially frosty nights.

[Penellype]

Any more updates Pen?

The frost we were forecast never happened - was there a bit of a shift in the fronts?

Looks like we are in for a few dry days so hopefully I'll manage to get the grass cut soon....

Sorry, I've been struggling to keep up with stuff recently due to an increase in activity at work.

Frost at this time of year is usually dependent on clear skies, although the air mass we have been in has been rather cool for the time of year. Patchy cloud is hard to forecast and it can make quite a big difference to the temperature, which is probably why you missed the frosts.

The weather is about to change - it has (supposedly) been dry, although we have had some rain or drizzle every day for the past week including today, as often happens here when the wind is from the east. Tomorrow a low pressure system will start to move in from the west, changing the wind direction to south or south westerly, which is warmer. It will, however also bring rain, and the remainder of October looks likely to be unsettled and changeable with wind and rain at times. Western Scotland looks likely to be extremely wet and there is a yellow warning of rain there for Monday into Tuesday.

The models are consistently seeing a hurricane forming near the east coast of America next week. This could potentially change our weather and the occasional model run has had it causing high pressure to build over us into November. However the majority of runs seem to keep us unsettled, with lows arriving regularly from the west for the foreseeable future.

[Penellype]

I threw it down overnight here. I woke up thinking there was a sudden gale, then realised the noise was rain, not wind.

Yes, that would be the cold front passing through - colder air behind is setting in now. The rest of October is looking as though it could be really quite cold for the time of year as high pressure is taking hold to the north and west. This means that the wind direction will generally be either northerly or easterly, and this sort of pattern tends to take some shifting. However we do have hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment and ex-hurricanes do sometimes change weather patterns, so we shall see.

[1Bee]

I threw it down overnight here. I woke up thinking there was a sudden gale, then realised the noise was rain, not wind.

[Penellype]

Some chilly nights coming up as the wind turns into the north over the weekend. Ground frost is possible in vulnerable areas.

[littlemoney]

The wet weekend has already started in Essex. 1.75 inches of rain already today and continuous rain is forecast for the rest of the day. At this rate it will be over 2 inches of rain in 24 hours. Unheard of in this normally dry area.

[Penellype]

A very wet weekend coming up courtesy of storm Alex, with warnings in place including yellow for wind and rain in the south today and amber for rain in eastern Scotland and Wales and parts of the south west tomorrow and Sunday. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-10-02

[Ms-T]

We have the rain in the south east , but not too windy....yet.

[Plot70]

We will now have to wait patiently to see if they have got it right

[Penellype]

A very wet weekend coming up courtesy of storm Alex, with warnings in place including yellow for wind and rain in the south today and amber for rain in eastern Scotland and Wales and parts of the south east tomorrow and Sunday. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-10-02

[1Bee]

Definitely chilly here. Which means I'm bringing in the last of the squashes and chillies in the next couple of days...

[Penellype]

Some risk of frost later this week/weekend in vulnerable areas as the wind turns into the north.

[Penellype]

Apparently it's only the 2nd time, first was in 2005 when we got to Zeta (6th on the list). Will be interesting where this year takes us as there's a reasonable amount of time left and there seems to be a conveyor forming multiple depressions. Amazing thing the atmosphere.

Definitely very interesting. However I detect a slight slowing of the number of storms now, and one of the weathermen I follow on Twitter mentioned something about a decrease in convective activity in the tropics, although I didn't totally understand what he was saying. But yes, plenty of time left for more storms to form.

[Chippy Minton]

Apparently it's only the 2nd time, first was in 2005 when we got to Zeta (6th on the list). Will be interesting where this year takes us as there's a reasonable amount of time left and there seems to be a conveyor forming multiple depressions. Amazing thing the atmosphere.