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  • Chippy Minton
    replied
    Seen in the Daily Moan....

    Grahame Madge of the Met Office said: 'Many weather agencies are united in the view that this Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) will take place next week. When that happens - around 30km up in the stratosphere - our traditional wind pattern can be reversed.

    The 'sudden stratospheric warming' (SSW) event happens when the temperature in the stratosphere soars by 50C (122F). This 'reverses' Britain's wind pattern, from the warmer west out in the Atlantic to the east – and Siberia.

    It can take two weeks for the effects of a SSW to be felt. This was the case in February 2018 with the infamous Beast from the East, which saw much of the UK gripped by travel chaos and school closures amid heavy snow.

    What is less clear is the long-term outlook for the impact of this event. Two out of three SSW events result in very cold episodes but one in three has little impact at all.


    They helpfully provided a graph, possibly attached if I used the technology correctly.

    So, assuming the SSW occurs we've a 66% chance of a bit of parky weather. Any of this showing up in your models Pen?

    Leave a comment:


  • Plot70
    replied
    I managed to get the second half of a bed dug and the weeds piled loosely in the hope that the frost will "freezer burn" the roots.
    I did not get the manure on because the snow was accumulating too quickly for me to be able to see what I was doing.
    The birds were just weathering the storm in the trees.
    You can see the last of the greens that I saved from a pigeon attack waiting for me to take them home.Click image for larger version

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Thanks Pen!...I’m crossing my fingers for snow

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  • Penellype
    replied
    Quick update - I haven't much time at the moment.

    As predicted it has got a lot colder, and this is set to continue for at least a week. It is likely to get even colder after the weekend as the wind swings round to the east. After that the models are much less certain, with some runs bringing in even colder air, setting up a severe cold spell which could last potentially into February. Other runs turn milder, but once we have set up a cold spell like this, milder usually involves quite a bit of snow at first.

    Regardless of whether or not it turns milder, there is low pressure about and snow is likely to feature from time to time. At present the upper air temperatures are not particularly cold and much of the precipitation is borderline rain/snow and hard to predict with confidence. If the colder runs are right and the upper air gets colder next week and any precipitation is going to be to be snow.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chippy Minton
    replied
    Unexpectedly heavy snowfall hereabouts, was expecting a light dusting, woke up to about an inch. Everything covered. Sprouts might taste a bit sweeter though after this cold snap.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Thanks folks, we were lucky. A river downstream burst its banks and the water receded before it got through our doors! Close one. Hope the rain tomorrow isn't as bad.

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Quite a few warnings appearing relating to ice, wind and rain through to Sunday. The boxing day storm has been named Bella and there is an amber warning of wind for parts of the south west.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...ate=2020-12-24

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Just legged it back from the allotment as heavy snow set in. I always forget that York is on the east coast when it comes to snow showers.

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  • burnie
    replied
    One of our local hills roads has the snow gates closed, not that I can use it due to covid restrictions at the moment as it goes over into Aberdeenshire.

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    Originally posted by sandspider View Post
    Lapping at the house
    I hope all is ok Sandspider - very worrying for you. There has been a huge amount of rain in places. Thankfully a couple of drier days now, but another deluge on boxing day I'm afraid.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nicos
    replied
    ^^^^ yikes!....I hope it's stopped rising???
    What a worry.

    I noticed streams here have broken their banks in the fields but nothing like you are describing sandspider.

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Lapping at the house

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  • sandspider
    replied
    Darn near flooded here today. River running over the drive and through the garden.

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  • Nicos
    replied
    Aww...thanks Pen! ...Frost is the next best thing to snow for Xmas morning!

    Leave a comment:


  • Penellype
    replied
    It looks like the cold scenarios are winning out and we could be about to set up a few weeks of cold and potentially wintery weather. Current model runs have the high pressure ridging up to Greenland and joining forces with the huge Siberian high, pushing the jet stream south. There is no sign of the Azores high, which normally sits to our south and south east, so all the signs are that once it gets cold it will stay cold until something changes the setup.

    Tomorrow looks wet, as cold air moves south for Christmas. There may or may not be some snow, most likely in the north and along north and east facing coasts. Boxing day looks likely to be slightly milder but wet as a large low pressure area dives south, pulling in a northerly wind behind it. The low then becomes effectively trapped over and to the south of us, pulling the wind in from the north, north east or east. This setup is cold and likely to stay cold, probably getting increasingly cold as time goes on. Any disturbances within the low pressure could result in areas of snow - these are incredibly hard to predict. We are not talking feet of snow and temperatures in the -10s, but it will be freezing at night and possibly near freezing during the day, particularly if there is any snow cover.

    Be prepared to have to sit this out for a while!

    Leave a comment:

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