Originally posted by sandspider
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The current situation is that for some considerable time we have had high pressure to our east and low to the west, which has given us a very warm autumn, becoming wetter as the high has gradually moved east. The high is now starting to drift north towards Scandinavia, so that by the end of this week the wind will have started to turn easterly. This is not a beast from the east, contrary to the scaremongering from the usual newspaper suspects, which only need a sniff of the word "cold" to start predicting snowmageddon. Initially at least there will be a southerly tilt to the wind, so although it is cold because it is coming across the continent, it won't be very cold.
The models are divided about what happens next, although all options are cold. There is a significant possibility that the high will stretch towards Greenland while remaining lodged across Scandinavia, resulting in a persistent easterly over several weeks. There is also the possibility of "retrogression" where the centre of the high moves west, lodging across Greenland. Some of the recent model runs have shown very high pressure over Greenland, extending down into the Atlantic. If this happens we could be "locked in" to a long cold spell. However, there are other possibilities - the high could move to the Canadian side of Greenland, which would allow the warmer lows to move in underneath it, so it is not a done deal by any means. The critical factor in this scenario is how much blocking there is in the Atlantic.
So, my prediction for December is that it will become increasingly cold but rather dry over the next couple of weeks, followed either by a gradual warm up (which could involve snow) or a continuation of a similar theme, with winds either from the north or east. Further ahead, the models are undecided about January, with some continuing the cold theme while others revert to milder, wetter and windier conditions. The general consensus at present seems to be for a milder February. This pattern would in general tie in with the La Nina situation, which tends to favour cold in the early winter, followed by milder later on.
Clearly a cold December is not great news in the current energy crisis, and worryingly a lack of wind appears on the cards too, which is about the worst case scenario from the point of view of electricity supply. If you have a smart meter and are able to join your energy supplier's program to save energy at peak times (Octopus call theirs Saving Sessions, other suppliers may have different names), you may just be able to help keep the lights on!
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